
OptionProbability
Lionel Messi to score at least one goal
Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage
USA survives group stage
2+ red cards in any match
Goal from last kick of the game
Mexico survives group stage
3+ red cards in any match
6+ yellow cards in any match
Red card issued for mouth covering
Black player gets the red card
Bicycle kick attempt
Team scores after being down to 10 men
Both teams score in stoppage time
Player scores against country of birth/heritage
Player bleeding on camera during match
Team loses possession from delay throw-in
Player scores a hat-trick
Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match
Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match
Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)
Team finishes match with 9 players
French-born player scores against France
Goal scored directly from a free-kick
A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament
Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals
“Puto” chant at match
Referee falls down
Any host places 1st in their group
Curaçao scores a goal
Haaland scores over 3.5 goals
Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands
At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal
gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury
Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick
Cape Verde scores a goal
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200
Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal
Canada survives group stage
Team with 0 wins in Group Stage
Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan
3+ penalty shootout
Trump still alive at end of final match
The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals
Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer
Fan hospitalized for heat related illness
20+ penalty goals
Over 9.5 own goals scored
Over 10.5 red cards
Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined
Trump attends match
Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match
Players cleat falls off their foot
Neymar plays in a match
Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?
Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded
A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)
US scores in every single group stage match
Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)
Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet
VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions
South American team reaches semi-final
Champion is unbeaten
Bottle thrown on field
Champion is a first place group stage winner
Ronaldo to cry at the world cup
Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)
2+ European countries reach top 4
Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row
Asian player misses penalty kick
Messi scores a goal at 39 years old
Ronaldo gets in referee face
Messi gets a yellow card
Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match
Any host nation in quarter final
Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt
Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)
Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?
The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner
Team loses after leading 2-0
5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)
Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament
No red cards issued in the Final match
A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.
US goes further than Mexico
Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing
Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?
The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner
Freddy attends the final match
Both teams in final have red on their flag
Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)
Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage
Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits
Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick
Over 289.5 total goals scored*
Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match
Someone escorted off field shirtless
More own goals than red cards in tourney
Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament
Elon Musk attends match
Asian player gets the red card
USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further
15+ minutes of the stoppage time
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300
Ronaldo puts up the goose egg (excludes any penalty or shootout)
Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness
A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message
Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match
Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium
2 UEFA teams in final
Player tears their ACL
Messi to score a free kick
Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours
Flares in stands during match in USA
Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor
Spain goes further than France
Laser pointer on goalie during match
Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup
Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match
Goal scored within 1st minute
Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved
VAR overturns second yellow card
Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption
Any match is canceled or postponed
The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals
30+ penalty goals
USA player gets the red card
Disruption at Iran match
Betting scandal reported
Canada goes further than US
Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal
3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup
Match has a dedicated moment of silence
Ronaldo does not start
Team captain gets red card
Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?
6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage
Winning team has a foreign manager
Bald person gets the red card
Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass
Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match
Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)
Over 395.5 yellow cards
Both players in this photo* play each other in a match
Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)
A penalty shootout to decide the Final match
Fans invade field during match
Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final
Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match
Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs
World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage
Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)
First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved
Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties
Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs
Smoke bomb during match in USA
Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player
Messi scores on every game he plays
The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists
Player gets spat on during match
25+ people arrested at stadium
Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo
Salt Bae attending a match
Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)
Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards
Freddy shown during a match broadcast
England loses on penalties
Final features a team that has never made it to the final before
Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline
Animal (not birdy) is on field during match
An African nation to reach the Semi-finals
ICE makes a capture at the stadium
Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)
Goal scored from own half
Haaland scores on every game he plays
Player throws captains armband
Headbutt during match
Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match
Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?
Champion is a first time World Cup winner
Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average
Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)
All 48 teams score at least 1 goal
Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)
Another match with 3+ red cards
Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage
Asia team reaches semi final
Football is coming home?
Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands
All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage
Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament
King Charles attends match
Player walks off pitch protesting referee
Trump attends 3 or more games
Team wins a match without making a single substitution
Major security incident
Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?
German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt
15+ cards in any match
Player bit during match
Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer
Bonnie Blue attending a match
Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot
Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)
Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)
Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium
Match is forfeited
Trump dancing at match
The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds
10+ goals in any match
An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag
Team gets removed or disqualified
Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament
The Netherlands does not survive group stage
Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal
Team finishes third in group and makes it to final
Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card
USA plays Iran
Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)
Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400
Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant
Player shits in the pants during match
Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds
Omar Artan is at a World Cup match
Players / members of team attempt to defect
Confirmed case of Ebola at the match
Ronaldo does jerkin move
A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner
Player suffers cardiac arrest
A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points
Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)
Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match
Player dies during World Cup
Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant
All 3 host countries win the opener
Ronaldo scores before Messi
4+ Corners in Every Group Stage Match
100
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3
3
2
2
1
1
1
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1
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
22230
4498
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1206
789
OptionProbability
Mohamed Salah
Luca Modric
Bruno Fernandes
Vini Jr.
Robert Lewandowski
Lionel Messi
57
25
24
23
5
1

