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Santiago News

    Prediction markets for Santiago

    Members of the Board of Peace?

    Jan 20, 4:29 AMDec 31, 4:11 AM
    3822371

    OptionProbability

    Tony Blair (former UK Prime Minister)

    Viktor Orbán (Hungarian Prime Minister)

    Tô Lâm (Vietnamese Communist Party Secretary General)

    Javier Milei (Argentine President)

    Edi Rama (Albanian Prime Minister)

    Santiago Peña (Paraguayan President)

    Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Turkish President)

    Shehbaz Sharif (Pakistani Prime Minister)

    Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Prime Minister)

    Marco Rubio (US Secretary of State)

    Steve Witkoff (US Special Envoy)

    Jared Kushner (Trump's son-in-law)

    Marc Rowan (Finance billionaire)

    Ajay Banga (President of World Bank)

    Robert Gabriel (US Security Adviser)

    Nickolay Mladenov (Bulgarian diplomat)

    Alexander Lukashenko (Belarusian President)

    Narendra Modi (Indian Prime Minister)

    Vladimir Putin (Russian President)

    Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Brazilian President)

    United Kingdom

    Anthony Albanese (Australian Prime Minister)

    Mark Carney (Canadian Prime Minister)

    Xi Jinping (Chinese Communist Party Secretary General)

    Giorgia Meloni (Italian Prime Minister)

    Ursula von der Leyen (EU Commission President)

    Emmanuel Macron (French President)

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    75

    26

    20

    15

    15

    10

    8

    8

    7

    5

    5

    Which of these IUCN critically endangered ("Red List") species will still be extant in 2040?

    Apr 25, 11:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    243997

    OptionProbability

    European hamster (Cricetus cricetus)

    Kākāpō (Strigops habroptila)

    Torrey pine (Pinus torreyana)

    California condor (Gymnogyps californianus)

    Sumatran orangutan (Pongo abelii)

    African forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis)

    Great hammerhead (Sphyrna mokarran)

    Black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis)

    Chinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla)

    Ammonite Snail (Helenoconcha relicta)

    Hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata)

    Rusty patched bumble bee (Bombus affinis)

    Jellyfish tree (Medusagyne oppositifolia)

    Peacock tarantula (Poecilotheria metallica)

    Santiago Island giant tortoise (Chelonoidis niger darwini)

    Great green macaw (Ara ambiguus)

    Pernambuco pygmy owl (Glaucidium mooreorum)

    Angelshark (Squatina squatina)

    Dromedary naiad (Dromus dromas)

    Sri Lankan relict ant (Aneuretus simoni)

    Seychelles forest scorpion (Lychas braueri)

    Nike's squeaker (Arthroleptis nikeae)

    David's tiger (Parantica davidi)

    Vaquita (Phocoena sinus)

    95

    90

    86

    85

    80

    77

    77

    72

    69

    69

    67

    61

    58

    58

    57

    57

    57

    57

    57

    57

    57

    47

    31

    10

    If Trump is reelected, will he show signs of age-related mental decline by the end of his term?

    Jul 4, 11:15 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM
    89.98%chance
    372731

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    2997

    334

    Will King Charles survive his cancer diagnosis?

    Feb 5, 6:33 PMFeb 13, 5:59 AM
    48.92%chance
    552612

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    998

    940

    Do you think Bayern would win the second leg against Real Madrid

    Apr 7, 11:20 PMDec 30, 11:19 PM
    99%chance
    92593

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    995

    10

    Will DeSantis have a role in Trump’s administration?

    Jan 21, 10:22 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
    35.06%chance
    271390

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1113

    696

    If Trump wins, what will the Democracy Index be for the US at the end of his presidency?

    Mar 10, 5:36 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    15711

    OptionProbability

    <78

    82-83

    80-81

    78-79

    84-85

    >85

    59

    14

    12

    11

    2

    2

    Where will I study abroad?

    Apr 28, 5:52 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
    8548

    OptionProbability

    Cape Town, South Africa

    NONE

    Berlin, Germany

    Madrid, Spain

    Oxford, UK

    Kyoto, Japan

    Santiago, Chile

    Washington, DC

    Other

    Beijing, China

    Florence, Italy

    New York City

    Paris, France

    Istanbul, Turkey

    Hong Kong

    Australia (mobile)

    64

    7

    6

    5

    4

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    In which city will the 2036 Olympic Games be held?

    Feb 9, 6:58 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM
    17471

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Doha

    Ahmedabad

    Santiago

    Istanbul

    Nusantara

    Seoul

    Berlin

    Budapest

    Chengdu

    Chongqing

    Boston

    Rome

    Madrid

    Johannesburg

    Buenos Aires

    23

    22

    21

    10

    5

    4

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Will there be any passenger Jumbo Jets (A380, B747) still flying by 2035?

    Jun 12, 7:54 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
    74.73%chance
    483

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    158

    48

    2030 FIFA World Cup final – where?

    Oct 20, 4:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    481

    OptionProbability

    Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

    Camp Nou (Barcelona)

    Grand Stade de Casablanca (Casablanca)

    67

    26

    7

    WILL JOSE LUIS RICON join the Order of Santiago, of Calatrava, Alcantara, or Montesa?

    Jul 15, 5:37 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    50%chance
    118

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    100

    100

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