OptionProbability
Richard Hanania
Sam Altman
Growing Daniel
Robin Hanson
Elon Musk
Dave Chapelle
Cersei Lannister (from Game of Thrones)
Lelouch Lamperouge (from Code Geass)
Light Yagami (from Death Note)
Polymarket
Evil
Donald Trump
Men
Polygamous Mormons
Thanos
United States of America
UK
Diogenes
Monday
Engineering
Donald Trump (2004)
The Pivot
Scientology
Sauron
Hitler
Techno-solutionism
Bryan Caplan
Israel
Putin
Iran
Russia
SCOTUS
Aragorn
Queen Elizabeth II
Willingness to start Nuclear War
Japan
South Korea
Christianity
Islam
Zionism
God
Roman Empire
Voldemort
Libertarianism
Burning books
Censorship
Mercantilism
Windows
iOS
Effective Accelerationism
Emmanuel Macron
The Stock Market
Tax Fraud
Slytherin
Gryffindor
Nuclear Power
Gender-Critical Feminists
The Azov Brigade
The Butlerian Jihad
The Torment Nexus
The Second Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America
John "Johnny Rotten" Lydon
𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘱 𝘛𝘳𝘰𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴 by Robert A. Heinlein
The Rule of Law
Nick Land
Conspiracy Theory
Dolores Umbridge
Pickup Artistry
Racism
Sexism
Deontological Ethics
Virtue Ethics
The Roman Empire
The Roman Republic
Meritocracy
Racial Colorblindness
Idiocracy (2006)
Dementors (in Harry Potter)
Karl Lagerfeld
Francisco Franco
Victual Brothers
Project MKUltra
Hearts of Iron IV
Warhammer 40K
Having an Anime Avatar on Twitter/X
4chan
Eternal Love
Cryptocurrencies
Theocracy
Pronatalism
Havelock Vetinari
Philosemitism
Friedrich Nietzsche
Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel
Carl Jung
Neo-Luddism
Antisemitism
Europa Universalis IV
House Harkonnen
House Atreides
House Corrino
Immanuel Kant
Frequentism
Elsevier
Ingsoc (1984)
Aviation
O'Brien from 1984
Michael Scott (from The Office)
Catholicism
The Kelly Criterion
The U.S. Founding Fathers
Julius Caesar
Napoleon Bonaparte
The average between Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Elon Musk in 2019
The most right-wing effective altruist you (the trader) personally know
having more than three children
private members clubs
Eagle
APAs (beer)
Minions
Travis Kelce
NIMBYism
RFK Jr.
Watching sports
Gambling on Sports
fast food
franchising
Dogs
The Senate Filibuster
strength training
The Twenty-Fifth Amendment to the US Constitution
Mosquitoes
Bears 🐻
The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (the alliance between the USSR and Nazi Germany)
Defense
NATO
The Meiji Restoration
Fortnite
David Fincher
Purple
Rammstein (the band)
Grass
Marvin the Martian
US politics
Microsoft
The police (the actual police, not the band)
not putting the toilet seat down after peeing
Great Britain
The British Empire
The Great Basil Empire
the Steam Engine
dogecoin
Chesterton's Fence
Neoliberalism
Extraversion
Antidisestablishmentarianism
Recommending state sponsored euthanasia to people because they're poor
Ordo Templi Orientis
One-party system
Working
Religion
Casinos
Mr. House (Fallout New Vegas)
Dr. House
Antisemitism in 2024
Logging
Queens (the sovereigns)
House M.D.
Protoss (star craft universe)
labeling everything into right-wing and left-wing
"Conspicuous consumption"
Flipping a coin
To kill (your own) dog. [IMPORTANT, PLEASE NOTE: Dog, not puppy.]
Queens (the chess pieces)
Being off the grid
Libria (from Equilibrium, the movie 2002)
Darwin Awards
Oscar Mayer Wienermobile
Using sweepstakes rules as an end-run around gambling regulation
Doomsday prepping
Predatory animals
Eating meat
Aggression
Hunting
The majority of people in the world
Economics
Victimizing others for political power
The wing that has caused the most deaths, *net of any lives it might have saved*
Saying "y'all"
Paganism, like in the Roman Empire
Paganism, like executing Socrates
Standardized academic testing
Homeschooling
The Mafia
Private charity
Diabetes
Motorcycle (instead of a car)
Magic: the Gathering (Azorious)
Magic: the Gathering (Grixis)
Magic: the Gathering (Orzohv)
Magic: the Gathering (Spike)
Political Centerists
Mustache (only, as opposed to bearded or clean shaven)
Clean shaven face
Cocaine and Hookers (as a single concurrent activity, as opposed to serverally or individually)
Nature, as opposed to Nurture
corruption
nepotism
The classification of objects
The average person
The average American
Patents
Embryo selection for IQ
Authority
Debt-trap diplomacy
Kiki
Polygenic Embryo Selection for Intelligence/IQ/g
Polygenic Embryo Selection for Height
Polygenic Embryo Selection for Attractiveness
Polygenic Embryo Selection against Autism
Creating options on this martet that are lowkey the same thing as an already existing option
Hereditary rule
Wealth inheritance
Gold
Eugenics
Progress studies
Everything is communism
monarchism
Good faith voting that prioritizes capitalist over populist interpretation of the market
Bodybuilding
The secret group behind everything
Tall
Wide
Choosing the man over the bear
Looking for a man in finance, trust fund, 6’5, blue eyes
a man in finance, trust fund, 6'5, blue eyes
Finance
thinking 4 is a smaller number than -10
Hunks
Bears
J.R.R. Tolkien
Hobbits
Corpulence
Twunks
Uppers
Downers
Ice Hockey
Believing people on the right are fundamentally good.
The Austrian School
Believing people are fundamentally bad.
Believing that the world is an evil illusion which our greatest hope is to escape from.
Believing that everything happens for a reason.
Believing that ending sentences with prepositions is something up with which we should not put.
The honorific "Mrs."
Ineffective charities
Saying « I’m not racist, but… »
Karens
Net-negative counterfactual impact charities
Saying « I’m not gay, but… » while actually being gay
Believing that guns are fundamentally good.
Believing that knives are fundamentally good.
Believing that contraceptives are fundamentally bad.
Appeasing Russia
Magpies
Corsets
Walternate (character from Fringe, alternate timeline version of Walter Bishop)
American tourists
Preference for Dinousars looking scaly, as opposed to feathery
Eating
Drinking
Capitalism
Mercantilism
Anarcho-capitalism
Moneylending
« Your mom » jokes
« Ur gay » jokes
« If…, then you’re gay » jokes
Fundamental (or absolute) morality
thinking that the Eastern Bloc countries (until 1990) were indeed left wing
watching national competitions (world cups etc) instead of professiona club competitions/individual competitions (for instance, UEFA Eurocup (national representations) in football instead of UEFA Champions league (professional sport teams))
Authoritarianism
Game shows
Talk shows
Reality shows
9/11 Conspiracy Theories
Effective political campaigning and coalition building
Independent Voters
The Supreme Court of the United States of America
Ronald Reagan
αρετη
θυμός
στοργή
Becoming a lord with the lord title company thingy
Believing humans have heritable physical traits
Believing humans have heritable cognitive traits
The person who shot at Trump
Believing that you need to believe things that aren't true in order to be a good person
Believing that you should have a good life if and only if you're a good person
Voting for the winner of every US presidential election since 2000
E/Acc
Use of stone tools
Farming
Domestication of animals
Backyard chickens
Sailing
The right of gay men to protect their marijuana farm with guns.
Believing illegal immigrants have heritable cognitive traits
Libtard
Generalist
The cool kids
Gamers
Joe Manchin
Straight non-white Latino women aged 18-24 from a suburb in Texas who are Catholic or Orthodox and took some college classes
Straight white men aged 55-64 from rural Florida who are atheist and who were educated toward high school
Lesbian white women aged 18-24 from rural Alaska who are Evangelical and who were educated to high school
JD Vance
doping for body performance
the "culture war"
The decisions corporate executives/ upper management make at work
How corporate executives/ upper management vote personally
Transmedicalism
People in 2024 who enjoy the film White Chicks
The YouTube political content creators that get more views.
New money
Bashar al-Assad
Hamas
Homeowner in the hood (D+80, minority-majority precinct) owns two pickup trucks parked on the driveway and has an American flag hanging off the porch. No other banners/ signs.
The belief that a largely unmoderated social media platform should not face boycotts or government censorship
Lex Fridman
"Yes"
Looking for a good deal
"Your right to free speech ends just where my ears begin"
Elites
Nobles
Small business
Heroes
"Sex work is bad because it's sex"
"Sex work is good because it's how I get sex"
long live the queen
Youtube recommendation algorithm
Hard-working, devout Catholic, traditional-value-minded, entrepreneurial undocumented immigrants
Gay Mormon tax
Bearish Bulls
The original Constitution of the United States, without any amendments
The Constitution of the United States, with the first 10 amendments (Bill of Rights)
The current Constitution of the United States, with its 27 amendments
English Americans
Saddam Hussein
Anarcho-Egoism
Eco-Fascism
Fourth political theory
People in 42024 BCE who enjoyed Grugh the Caveman's painting, "Grugh kill bison with spear, Fronk weak caveman no help"
Legalizing gambling on politics
Futarchy
The works of Christopher Nolan
X should be legal because freedom is more important than Y consequence.
Beating your kids
Requiring your kids to accept hugs/kisses from relatives when they don't want to
Legacy admissions - getting into a university because your parents are alumni
Economic literacy
Killing your neighbor's pet and eating it
Killing your neighbor's pet but not eating it
The madonna/whore complex
Feeling threatened by too much power being put into Representatives of The People
Alcohol prohibitionism
Subsidiarity
Anarcho-cannibalism
Attacking Karl Popper with a fireplace poker
Thomas Jefferson's relationship with Sally Hemings
Living in a town where everyone votes for the same political party
Living in a town where everyone goes to the same church
Living in a town where everyone works for the same employer
Living in a town where everyone's kids go to the same school
Homeschooled kids, like Rebecca Black ("Friday" singer) or Cady, the main character from Mean Girls
“The national debt is now $xx trillion, we need to stop borrowing against our grandchildren”
Thinking you or other people speak without an accent, as if that is even possible lol
speaking with the same accent as the median TV presenter
Overpollution and burning fossil fuels, thereby ruining the environment for our grandchildren
Not charging emitters for the social cost of carbon, causing overpollution and fossil fuel use
Having an independent central bank
Trying to take an average over a space that has no well defined average
Political violence
Disliking the American Constitution because it’s a product of the Enlightenment
the madhi coming to the world this century
Having no central bank.
WVO Quine
Phosphorus
Allowing actors to profit from the positive externalities they create
Free banking
Having a currency board
Floating exchange rates
Enclosure of the commons
Inventing insulting nicknames for your political opponents (e.g. "Sleepy Joe")
Turning the names of politicians you oppose into rude words (e.g. "santorum")
"Parental Advisory: Explicit Lyrics" warning labels.
Changing the name of a food on your menu to make it more American/patriotic (e.g. "freedom fries")
Changing the name of a drug that you sell to make it more American/patriotic (e.g. "freedom kush", "red white and blue tar heroin")
The Hidden-Variable Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics
The "All About the Math, No Interpretation" of Quantum Mechanics
Concorde
Using LLMs for linguistic analysis in court cases
Using category theory to analyze the Christian Doctrine of the Trinity
Bias
Substack
Being undecided in the 2024 election
“The west is the best” (said in 2016)
“The west is the best” (said today)
Committing a financial crime
sugar
Being neither left wing nor right wing
Hating the West Wing (in 2002)
Hating the West Wing (today)
Shit talking on internet communities, then pretending they didn't
Adultery
Nude Africa
Liking Harry Potter in 2021
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) striking at this point of the presidential race
Saying “Persia” instead of “Iran”
Plastic surgery
@SteveSokolowski
Thinking the one person we select as President is more important than the 1,000s of government positions they will appoint new members to after they are elected.
Voting in line with Blackrock, Raytheon, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Pfizer, Moderna and the rest of the corporate industrial complex.
Believes corporate personhood is the largest issue in this election.
Gender-confirming conspicuous consumption
Gender-confirming consumption
Vice signaling: performatively doing something "bad" to show defiance of someone you disapprove of
Sydney Sweeney's boobs
Watches over $500
Think tanks
Coming from wealth
Black ethnonationalism
White ethnonationalism
Jewish Ethnonationalism
Arab ethnonationalism
Christian nationalism
Being pro-choice for race-selective abortions
Running ads on an alt-right website because the ads are cheap and then going "oops" when your audience becomes notably less tolerant of others
Political rallies
Embracing tradition for utilitarian reasons
The Uyghur genocide
Honor killings
Political extremism
Opposing xenogenders
Believing all spirits not in ingroup are demons
Believing you cannot be “plural” without having a dissociative disorder
Copyright law
Compulsory heterosexuality
Virginity == purity
Hormone-activated pheramone perfume
Kegel exercises
Missionary sex with lights off
Thinking "righty tighty, lefty loosey" is about politics
Eating chicken without seasoning
jk Rowling
white freezies
Boiling chicken
Frying chicken
Grilling chicken
Roasting chicken
The average first-wave feminist by today’s standards
Portuguese retirees
Bimetallism
British politics
first past the post voting
Party Switchers (new ideology relative to old)
The belief that vaccines cause autism
Gollum
Smeagol
Boromir
Blohm & Voss P 194
Disliking Trump but not thinking he is a fascist
Calling China “West Taiwan”
Not using tone tags
Not using trigger warnings
Being a virgin
making a big thing out of being a virgin
The concept of virginity
Thinking "AI art" is art
Block Plurality (“plurality-at-large”) Voting
The One Ring
The Philippines
Tariffs
Free trade
The fortnight before the US election
Lisa Murkowski
Spending the night before the election in a US fort
Dubai
Election fraud
Voter fraud
Worrying about voter fraud
Worrying about election fraud
Airstrikes in Beirut
Calling Mongolia "North Taiwan"
Pennsylvania
Calling Japan "Northeast Taiwan"
Calling Kazakhstan "West West Taiwan"
Balloon animals
Breeding cats
CrossFit
Ross Perot
Malty beer
Watery beer
Sparta
Beef jerky
Water polo
Spray tans
Vriska Serket
The winner of the 2024 United States presidential election
Skipping leg day
Garbage
Christmas
Batman/Bruce Wayne
Statues
Statutes
Pink capitalism
Der Ring des Nibelungen in 2024
National bolshevism aka nazbol
Killing Harambe The Gorilla
Gorilla Grodd
Poll Denialism
Killing countless animals in the process of factory farming
The year 1984
George Orwell shooting that elephant in Burma
Trans-Exclusionary Radical Feminism
Supporting Genghis Khan in the US today
mars
the sun
going to space
Accelerationist My Little Pony fanfic communities
Elvis
fillers (cosmetic)
Orcs
Dwarves
AI (not al)
Baby
Hillbilly Capitalism
Genocide
Opposing Al (not ai)
Manhattan-like Project for AGI
Opposable thumbs
Humans
Girls in white dresses with blue satin sashes
Doorbells and sleigh bells and schnitzel with noodles
Cream-colored ponies and crisp apple strudels
Brown paper packages tied up with strings
Bright copper kettles and warm woolen mittens
The Inca civilisation
Liechtenstein
Reducing the deficit
people who call themselves "classical liberals"
people who actually fit the definition of a classical liberal
Tulsi Gabbard (in 2020)
Treating "the definition" of a word as if it was anything other than how people actually use it
Treating "the grammar" of a language as if it was anything other than how people actually use it
The future of the US Democratic Party, relative to its current position
The future of the US Republican Party, relative to its current position
National Treasure
Survivor (the reality show)
Thanksgiving
Feminazism i.e. violent mass enslavement and genocidal extermination of men
Populism
Centrism
Andrew Jackson
Being apolitical
Microstates
non-geographic nations
Writing in Hailey Welch for president
Unintentionally spoiling your ballot
Ea-nāṣir
Seventh Day Adventists
Criticizing anything left-wing
Italy
Tucking in your shirt
Hats (male)
Hats (female)
Shoes with laces
Eggman's announcement https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XyEosgoGgg
Adaptive fitness
Making the world worse to maximize applicability of your adaptive fitness
Being a stupid human
Syria's Sednaya Prison, "Assad's human slaughterhouse"
Protectionism
The average American ten years ago, compared to the average American today
Plato
Aristotle
Toonocalypse
Federalist Party
The San Francisco Freedom Club
People who don’t vote
Gambling
Lucio Russo
Back to office policies
Sam's Club
George Washington
Taking 'Roko's Basilisk' Seriously
Mohammed
Strasserism
This market continuously closing and reopening
Buying a Tesla
John Adams
The unbearable slowness of being
Reality itself
Thomas Jefferson
Siding with India in the India-Pakistan conflicts of 2025
Playing tennis
Anime
Working for the FBI
Working for the CIA
Duke Nukem (Character)
Proud Boys
Letting a cat outside
Scambaiting
The Iranian regime's use of rape, torture, sexual assault to suppress women's protests in 2022-23
War
Consequences despite integrity
Lying to conform to the group
Falun Gong
Hitman: World of Assassination (2021)
Baroque Architecture
Political purges (targeted, systematic removal of opponents)
Druze people
fireworks
Borrowing against our grandchildren, thereby ruining the economy for them
Wild-caught diseases
JFK Jr. (edit: meant RFK Jr.)
Wild-caught bacon
Medical-bill bankruptcy
Taking sides in a conflict between two deeply right wing countries
Wild-caught salmon
Bedouin people
Having a pet cow
Lard
drone shows
One night stands
macOS
Bro try herhood
International Intrigue - Your cheeky guide to a complicated world. Get the 5-minute newsletter designed by former diplomats at https://www.internationalintrigue.io
Alois Mundo
Botox raven cosplay
The Sinclair method
Opinion columnists
Sam Dalrymple
Having other countries and/or people pay for your security
FreeBSD
NetBSD
OpenBSD
Michigan
Olive oil
Biltong
Canola oil
Sesame oil
Moving in together after the second date
The New York Times, as of 7/30/2025
Being poor while paying massive taxes towards "free" healthcare
Sam Kriss
Scott Alexander
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Gordon Ramsay
Destiny
Noah Smith
Matt Yglesias
Severus Snape (from Harry Potter)
Walter White (from Breaking Bad)
Harry-James-Potter-Evans-Verres (from HPMOR)
Dobby (from Harry Potter)
@Bayesian
Manifold Markets
Kalshi
Good
Steven Pinker
Sam Harris
Einstein
Jreg (Satirical anti-centrist)
Artificial Intelligence
This market
Richard Dawkins
Women
Sisyphus
Elon Musk in 2014
Mao
Stalin
Friday
Humor
Gandalf
Participating in this market
The Ivy League
Xi Jinping
China
Software Engineering
North Korea
Europe
Atheism
Buddhism
Judaism
Effective Altruism
Metaculus
Books
Linux
Android
Skibidi toilet
Rationalussy
Satan
Pastafarianism
Taxes
Sam Bankman-Fried
Magnus Carlsen
Hufflepuff
Ravenclaw
Chess.com
Lichess
AGI
Albus Dumbledore
Minerva McGonagall
Hermione Granger
Taylor Swift
Sirius Black
Harry Potter (as a character)
Ron Weasley
Luna Lovegood
Trotskyists
Gay White Cis Men
Solarpunk
The Buddhadharma
Freedom of Speech
𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘳 𝘪𝘯 𝘢 𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦 𝘓𝘢𝘯𝘥 by Robert A. Heinlein
Nick Bostrom
Class-First Socialist Analysis
Wikipedia
Solar power
Wind power
Geothermal power
Hydropower
SpaceX
Tesla
The Rawlsian Veil of Ignorance
Consequentialist Ethics
You, The Trader On This Market
The Future
Surprise
Zootopia (2016)
MrBeast
Patroni (in Harry Potter, plural form of Patronus)
Keep the Aspidistra Flying
hermit crabs
The Baltic Way
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Minecraft
Project Blue Book
Roblox
Lawlessness
Drugs
International
The First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America
Antinatalism
Geoengineering
Youtube
The Nineteenth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America
Bayesian Reasoning
Sci-Hub
Bernard Marx (from Brave New World)
Karl Marx
Guy Montag (from Fahrenheit 451)
Coolfold self-immolation
Robin Hood
Pope Francis
Transaction fees [shares*prob*(1 - prob)*0.07]
Manifold poker nights
The concept of the left-right political spectrum
The Artemis program
Jesus
Squidward
Ozempic
Georgism
The most left-wing effective accelerationist you (the trader) personally know
Ghosting
Traffic lights
The colour red
Soccer
The Marx Brothers
All votes in this market are equal regardless of mana (left), but the creator is making a big profit (right)
Parrots
Chupacabra
academia
YIMBYism
A healthy diet
Cats
cardio
Proportional representation
Ants 🐜
The United Nations
GMOs
Squirrels 🐿️
organic food
Renaming something to avoid bad PR
The protestors at Tiananmen Square
Curiosity
The Allies in World War 2
The Entente in World War 1
Disease
Video Games
Québec Separatism
Nanotechnology
Speedrunning
Boobs
Unity
Scott Pilgrim
TV shows
Cable TV
Greek Letters
Amnesia
Dyson Spheres
Time travel
Ordinary Least Squares Regression
Borgs (Star Trek )
The Police (the band, not the actual police)
The People's Front of Judea
Taylor Swift
Selena Gomez
Justin Bieber
Kurt Cobain
Rafael Nadal
Roger Federer
Soup
Having sex in the fields to make the crops grow
Liberalism
mind control
Changing your mind
Spelling mistakes
Memes
The minimum wage in Nordic countries
The level of wealth inequality in Sweden
Ernst Thälmann
Lactation cookies
The Warsaw pact
Resisting the ayatollahs' regime, like Saddam did in the 80s
Kibbutzim
Golden rice (vitamin A enriched to prevent blindness in the Third World)
Open borders, a Koch brothers proposal
The internet
protesting
Politics (in general)
Making sure you understand options before voting for them
Tiktok
Dungeons and Dragons
Sex work to pay your own way through medical school
Needing a license to cut hair
Having the proper amount of esteem for Jews - not too much, not too little
White-collar jobs
Anarchism
The Bronx
People holding elected office
Queens (the borough)
Chess
Queens (the men who dress as women)
Opposing Zionism, like Saddam always did
Resisting the imperialistic American invasion of Iraq, like Saddam did
Rejecting the absolute monarchy of Kuwait, like Saddam did in 1990
still greeting people with fist bump (despite COVID is in the past)
no gluten diet (in people without gluten related intolerance or disease) as a hobby
The Khmer Rouge
Two-state solution
Jonathan Swift
Holodomor
Asking ‘Would You Rather?’
Prey animals
Pro Immortalism
Vegetarianism
Veganism
Passivity
Exploiting the victim stance for political power
Gemini star sign
Believing your views are evidence-based even as you label an entire domain of human knowledge as the opposing wing
Paganism
Mistakes
the Judean People's Front
Autodidacticism
Phonics
Catdog (portmanteau referring to a cat and a dog joined at the waist facing away from each other, each with their own two front paws for a total of four legs)
Believing that the world would end during our lifetime
Magic: the Gathering (in person, paper magic)
Magic: the Gathering Arena (Hearthstone client imitation)
Magic: the Gathering Online (before pretty pretty Arena, there was MTGO)
Magic: the Gathering (Timmy)
Magic: the Gathering (Johnny)
Magic: the Gathering (Vorthos)
Tax exemptions for non-profit status
501(c)(3) entities (the most common 501 tax exempt entity by tax identification)
Coffee
Beards (facial hair, excluding mustache only, as opposed to clean shaven face)
NPR (National Public Radio)
AP (Associated Press)
Benjamin Franklin (the historical figure, not the various currency)
Aptitude for Mathematics in general
Aptitude for Science in general
Aptitude in S.T.E.M. in general
Aptitude for History in general
Aptitude for Political Science in general
Aptitude for Entertainment in general
Aptitude "in Bed" in general
Aptitude for Languages in general
Aptitude for Writing in general
Nurture, as opposed to Nature
Ineptitude, in general
Trust
Double standards
Privacy
Honesty
The truth
Hope
Big Government
Obamacare
Sheeple
The greater good
The ideal person
The ideal American
Equal opportunity for all
Equal opportunity for all, but more equal for some
Bouba
The bettors on this market
Dying with dignity
Abortion of Down's Syndrome Fetuses
Abortion
IVF
Polygenic Embryo Selection
Monogenetic Embryo Selection in IVF
Pineapple on pizza
Overdosing on drugs
Polygenic Embryo Selection for Educational Attainment
Polygenic Embryo Selection for general health
Polygenic Embryo Selection against cancer risk
Creating passive-agressive options on this market
Voting on options for this market based on whether you like them instead of what side of the political spectrum they actually fit on
Human Cloning
Cloning John von Neumann
Voluntary Eugenics
Manifest (the event hosted by Manifold)
Everything is fascism
republicanism (opposition to monarchy, support of self-governance)
Twinks
Camille Paglia
Coziness
Slenderness
Field Hockey
Air Hockey
Believing people are fundamentally good.
Believing that responsible stewardship of animals, plants, and natural resources is a fundamental duty of humankind.
Pope Francis' encyclical letter Laudato si'
Virtue signaling
Saying « I’m not a rationalist, but… »
Saying « I’m not gay, but… »
Saying « I’m not gay, but… » while actually not being gay
Believing that guns are fundamentally bad.
Believing that knives are fundamentally bad.
Believing that contraceptives are fundamentally good.
Believing that contraceptives are fundamentally good.
thinking 0+4i is a smaller number than -10
modified newtonian dynamics
Walter Bishop (character from Fringe, main timeline version)
Olivia Dunham (character from Fringe, main timeline version)
Bolivia/Fauxlivia (character from Fringe, alternate timeline version of Olivia Dunham)
Peter Bishop (character from Fringe)
Mother's Day
Queerbaiting
Dermatillomania
Femboys
Sour patch kids
Being attracted to overweight men
Being attracted to overweight women
Believing that AI should be regulated
Anarchism
Making things worse in order to hasten the arrival of the necessary conditions for socialist revolution (socialist accelerationism)
Furthering the goals of the right wing in order to hasten the arrival of the necessary conditions for socialist revolution (socialist accelerationism)
Touching grass
Relative morality
Invention of television.
Invention of the phone.
Invention of the wheel.
Emergence of social media in the internet/information age.
Big data
thinking that the Eastern Bloc countries (until 1990) were actually right-wing and not communist countries
Max Stirner's defintion of a "spook."
Not realizing eastern bloc countries were victims of Soviet imperialism
Soviet imperialism
the Holodomor
forced labor in the gulag
Progress
Alternative medicine
Authoritarian Socialism
Communist governments imprisoning or executing citizens for not espousing communist orthodoxy
Communist governments imprisoning or executing citizens for espousing right-wing ideas
“Biden should drop out”
Podcasts
spitting on people
Body dysmorphia
Anorexia
Continental philosophy
Analytic philosophy
The right to use anything as your name that you choose as long as it isn't for purposes of fraud
αγάπη
φιλία
ερως
Becoming vegetarian because Jesus loves animals
Believing non-human animals have heritable physical traits
Believing non-human animals have heritable cognitive traits
The Giver
Pottery
Writing
Control of fire
Lack of significant body hair compared to other primates
Behavioral modernity
Bipedalism
Specialist
Joe Biden
2024 Summer Olympics Opening
Kyrsten Sinema
Ideal philosophy student of perfect emptiness
Straight Asian women aged 18-24 from a suburb in Texas who are Catholic or Orthodox and took some college classes
Kamala Harris
Hillary Clinton
Bill Clinton
Josh Shapiro
Mark Kelly
Anonymous
THE International System of Units
interpreting everything as " it's just a slavery with extra steps ... "
doping for mental performance
Good little Biden
Any presidential candidate doping for mental performance :)
Betting objectively negative options on this market towards the side of the political spectrum you don’t identify with
People in 2004 who enjoyed the film White Chicks
Banksy
Being American but liking Hamas
Thinking Ted Cruz is the Zodiac Killer
The belief that a bookstore that carries objectionable content should not face boycotts or government censorship
"No"
"Maybe"
"Sex work is bad because it's work"
"Sex work is good because it's how I get work"
Student section at college football games
Land value tax
Gay Mormons
The metric system, like "see ya in a megasecond" or "ugh, 295K weather is fine but 300K is just unbearable"
The original Constitution of the United States, without any English
the state of Kerala in India
Muammar Gaddafi
People in 1424 who enjoyed "The Canterbury Tales"
People in 2024 who enjoy "The Canterbury Tales"
A tax imposed on, collected by, and funding Gay Mormons
The Bee Movie
Jazz
Feeling threatened by too much power being put into one corporation/network of corporations
Feeling threatened by too much power being put into one person
Madonna (the musician)
Putting too much power in Representatives of The People
"Footloose" starring Kevin Bacon
Eating dog meat
Putting the adequate amount of power in Representatives of The People
Charitably listening to the concerns of the other party.
Women's Suffragettes
John Brown (19th century abolitionist)
Pitbull (singer)
Naivety
David Ben-Gurion
Thomas Jefferson's letter to the Danbury Baptists
Living in a town where everyone goes to the Unitarian church
Living in a town where everyone's kids go to the Montessori school
Living in a kibbutz where everyone works for the same employer
Wittgenstein’s Tractatus
Wittgenstein's Philosophical Investigations
Sleep
Complaining about your grandparents' generation ruining the economy for you
Richard Rorty
Having an accent
Allowing polluters to pay to pollute (i.e. "carbon tax")
Richard Even Rortier
Gavagai
"Possible Girls" by Neil Sinhababu
"Can There Be Vague Objects?" by Gareth Evans
Hesperus
The Duhem-Quine Thesis
Potlucks
Making actors bear the cost of the negative externalities they create
Currency pegs
Capital controls
Hilary Putnam (1977)
Hilary Putnam (1994)
The Principle of Sufficient Reason
Manifold comments in the past few weeks
Empirio-criticism
The Copenhagen Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics
The Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics
Knowing a ton about Islam despite neither believing nor being raised in it.
Postmodernism
Creating an option in this market and then accidentally betting it in the wrong direction
Philosophical realism
Algebraists
Analysts
Scientific realism
Scientific antirealism
Liking IRV over first past the post, but not liking approval, STAR voting, or Condorcet methods
Being capable of steelmanning the opposition.
Intuitionism (in mathematics)
Justice
Open marriages
Reading nasty people who diaagree with u just for the dopamine hit
Liking Harry Potter in 2019
ASI
Monophysitism
The indictment of NYC Mayor Eric Adams
Emitting CO2 to produce solar panels to be sold on an open market
Gender-confirming medical treatments
Minoxidil
Enlightenment Now
short-selling crude oil
Statistical election models
Being aware of the influence special interest has pumped into social media recommendation/search bias.
Value signaling consumption
Value signaling outfit
Microdosing
Visiting the opera
Being pro-choice for sex-selective abortions
Writing in Joe Biden for president
"Holy hempers" - people who say its okay to smoke weed because Jesus also smoked weed
"Crackheads for Christ" - people who say its okay to smoke crack because Jesus also smoked crack
Going to church without believing it
Driving a hybrid minivan to accommodate your 3+ children
Decree 770
Doodling
Thinking AI art is theft
Thinking going to church without believing in it is an example of embracing tradition for utilitarian reasons
Responsive and spontaneous desire
Kink support/accountability groups
Using mindfulness meditation for better seggs
3d printed, anatomically correct depictions of larger clitoral network
Enthusiastic consent
consent smell aromatherapy candles
Individualised medicine offering pleasure mapping to discover eroggenous zones
A seggs dungeon with a focus on aftercare
A lubricant sommelier certification course
A seggsual fantasy based on consent negotiations
Pro state massage
Hands-on, self-motivated sex
Quick learner with a passion for processes and multitasking in bed
Detail-oriented and organized sex
Missionary sex with lights on
Keir Starmer
Holodomor denial
orange popsicles
Not buying olives with stones
Asking “why?” over and over like 4 yr olds do
Going camping
Cities
Trekking
Mountaineering
Breaking the law
Jill Stein
First time voters.
Home vegetable gardens
Femcels
Voting
Frodo
Sam Gamyi
Legolas
Stealing from a bank
Wiping from front to back
fiction
News
Marxism-Rodgerism
Independent journalism
Magic
Today's Vietnam
National parks
Autarky
Playing Fortnite before the US Election
Non-partisan elections
Biden dropping out
NIH grants
Cybersecurity
This market crashing on mobile because there are too many options
Being broke
Early voting
Dan Osborn
Fingerboarding
Podiatry
Hacky sack
Stray cat trap, neuter, and release
Hoppy beer
Skunky weed
Fruity weed
Grassy weed
Libertarian Progressivism
Progressive Libertarianism
Coloring
Doing Zumba
Playing tuba
Driving Ubers
Ballot initiatives
Doing the one block vertical jump for the beef
Being anxious about the election
Halloween
Making Election Day a holiday
Anarcho-communist homosexual-fascism aka ancom homofash
Killing Peanut The Squirrel
Killing Gorilla Grodd
First Quantization
Second Quantization
1984 by George Orwell
Saying “literally 1984”
The number 1984
Vatican II
earth
the moon
'That 1 friend whose politics makes no sense' in the latest Man Carrying Thing video
Space
Elves
Elfs
Universes Beyond
Waiting in line
election day doomscrolling
doomscrolling (general)
DnD 1e
DnD 5e
Al (not ai)
Al (Yankovic)
Nothing
Time
We Didn’t Start the Fire (song by Billy Joel)
This Land Is Your Land (song by Woody Guthrie)
Opposing AI
Punk
Opposing Force (Half-Life expansion pack)
Opossums
BDSM
Manifold’s average user base
Liberal Democrats (UK)
Silver white winters that melt into springs
Snowflakes that stay on my nose and eyelashes
Wild geese that fly with the moon on their wings
Raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens
Teachers who swear in class
Pahoehoe
Aa
The Cucuteni-Trypillia culture
Treating your grandma poorly
Safe Sex
Labor unions
UAW
Misandry i.e. hate and discrimination against men
Germany's Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) party
“Y.M.C.A.” by Village People
Twitter (in 2021)
New social medias created because of perceived problems in an existing one (e.g. Truth Social or Bluesky)
Sonic the Hedgehog
Shoes with velcro
Shoes with zips
Wearing trousers as a woman
Skolem's paradox
The Onion
Community Notes on Twitter
Free Trade, in 2024
Donald Trump at whatever time in his life he was most left-wing
Lilith (Diablo 4)
Socrates
Abraham Lincoln
Philip K. Dick
Luigi Mangione
Yourself (reader) ten years ago, compared to yourself today
The Young Turks (news show) in 2016
The Young Turks (news show) today
Jesse Singal
People who don’t vote out of protest
League of Legends
Costco
dath ilan
Scientists
People who don’t vote because they can’t
Ubiratan d’Ambrosio
Ernst Mach
Ratatouille (film)
Ratatouille (dish)
Juche
Voting for Jill Stein
Octopus
Buying a Tesla (in 2019)
Being a lawyer
Needing a lawyer
The Matrix
Battlestar Galactica
Ursula Le Guin
President Xi Jinping
Manifest 2025
Astronauts
Working for NASA
Male vs Female boxing fights
Integrity despite consequences
Siding with the Iranian regime
modal realism
Boxbox riven cosplay
Classical music
being a public intellectual with ostensibly left-leaning views, but whose career would be obsolete without family wealth/connections
Indoor air quality nerds
100
100
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86
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68
65
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56
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52
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48
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46
43
40
39
35
28
17
15
10
0
0
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0
0
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0
0
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OptionProbability
Adolf Hitler
George Santos
Benito Mussolini
Vladimir Putin
Joseph Stalin
Kanye West
Kim Jong-un
Derek Chauvin
Xi Jinping
Jeffrey Epstein
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Dan Schneider
David Duke
Tucker Carlson
Mao Zedong
Viktor Orbán
Genghis Khan
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Thanos
Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars
Dolores Umbridge
Nero (Roman emperor)
Bill Cipher
Curtis Yarvin
Nick Land
Shaun King
Caligula
King Leopold II of Belgium
Negan Smith
Alex Jones
Augusto Pinochet
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
A paperclip-maximizing AGI
Lauren Boebert
Pennywise, the clown from “It”
Vlad the Impaler
Saddam Hussein
Commodus
Cthulhu
Hirohito
Lucifer, the King of Hell / Satan
Joffrey Baratheon
Sauron
Hong Xiuquan
SCP-682
Uday Hussein
Nicolas Maduro
Jabba the Hutt
Kyle Rittenhouse
Lee Harvey Oswald
Robert Edward Lee
Pol Pot
The Master / Harry Saxon (from Doctor Who)
Anders Breivik
Voldemort
Chris Benoit
Rush Limbaugh
Gannondorf
Bobby Fischer
Charles Manson
The Mad King Aerys Targaryen II
Jair Bolsonaro
Drake
Hugo Chavez
Chris Chan
Phillipe Petain
A random convicted murderer
A large asteroid, plummeting towards Earth's gravity well
Andrew Tate
Dylan Klebold
A severe case of ulcerative colitis
A time traveler who can only go back in time to kill Hitler if he isn't busy being president
Donald Trump
Kang and/or Kodos
Satan
Josh Hawley
A random citizen with diagnosed paranoid schizophrenia and a dependence on stimulants
Albert Speer
Ibrahim abu Bakr Awad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Baghdadi
Steve Bannon
Cersei Lannister
A randomly-chosen prisoner in the US carceral system, sentenced for life
Ron Unz
Ivan the terrible
Otto Skorzeny
Karl Donitz
Trump's attempted assassin
Christoper Rufo
John Hinckley Jr.
The Loc-Nar
The Grim Reaper
Charles "Chuck" Johnson
Pat Buchanan
A random citizen but he thinks inflation increasing by 200% in a year would be "really cool"
Whatifalthist
Franz von Papen
A virulently antisemitic but otherwise well-meaning person
Erich von Manstein
Nikita Khrushchev
Judas Iscariot
Lyndon LaRouche
Joseph McCarthy
The CEO of MALIBAL
Erich Ludendorff
Mark Foley
Andronikos II Palaiologos
Liu Shan
Roko
Alana "Honey Boo Boo" Thompson
Godzilla
Hasan Piker / Hasanabi
Unabomber
Jozef Tiso
Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho
Thomas Midgley Jr.
Alfred Packer
Brent Dill
Steve Sailer
Erwin Rommel
Gongsun Yuan
Hasso von Manteuffel
King John
EMIL OLE WILLIAM KIRKEGAARD
qin shi huang
Shang Yang
Richard Lynn
James Longstreet
A cockroach
Niko Bellic
Commodus
Tito
an asi agent from openai
The exhumed corpse of George Washington (rather than alive during his prime), with a sign around his neck at all times reading 'slave owner' in red lettering
Vriska Serket
Miklos Horthy
Franz Joseph 1
WILLY ON WHEELS
J. Philippe Rushton
Lu Bu
Yuan Shikai
Yuan Shu
Juan Peron
Connor Duffy
Faust
Paul Von Hindenburg
Charles XII of Sweden
Zhou Enlai
Samuel Alito
@StochasticParrot (Stochastic Cockatoo)
Marlo Stanfield (The Wire)
Darkstalker (Wings of Fire)
Hunter Biden's laptop
Giego Caleiro
Fredrick Robert Brennan
Jeremy Nixon
Charles Murray
Paul Ehrlich
Michael de Santa
anatoly karlin
Jonathan Anomaly
Alexey Guzey
Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope (as co-presidents)
Yuan Shao
Jar Jar Binks
JD Vance
Karl Marx
Peter Thiel
Liang Mong-song
Lucy Guo
A randomly chosen child (<13) who does not speak English and who has never been to North or Central America
Stephen Hsu
James Buchanan
Mehmed V
Klaus Schwab
Sean Hannity
Rochelle Shen
Black Hat (XKCD)
King George III of England
Ada Nguyen
James Dewey Watson
Laura Gao
Claire Wang
@ButtocksCocktoasten
Jiang Zemin
Any child of Trump (randomly selected)
Salvador Allende
Rorschach
Wario
A literal ham sandwich
goth600
Petyr Baelish / Littlefinger
Elagabalus
Biden, but as a worm (i.e., Would you still vote for Biden if he was a worm?)
A well meaning person with severe short term memory issues causing them to wake up every day not realizing that they are the President
Light Yagami
Neville Chamberlain
Rod Blagojevich
Brian Chau (@psychosort)
Emperor Ling of Han
Chris Brown
Richard Watterson (from Gumball)
Tronald Dump, his counterpart in the Mirror Universe
Hans Niemann
Silvio Berlusconi
Timothy Leary
John Edwards
Lex Luthor
George Floyd
Hunter Biden
Razib Khan
Kim Dotcom
Waluigi
Bad Bunny
Deng Xiaoping
Empress Dowager Cixi
A prostitute from the alleged Trump pee tape
A randomly picked Muslim citizen of the US
Brian Tomasik
Your mom
Eren Yeager
THEAMAZINGATHEIST
Richard Hanania
A random citizen of slightly below average intelligence who drinks 1 beer a day and has no high school diploma
Chuck Norris
You (Are you really willing to take on the responsibilities of the presidency yourself to avoid giving them to Trump?)
Ray Shaun Elussy
Lucille Bluth
Michael Vassar
An automated veto stamp (vetoes everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)
Kristi Noem's dog
Moses (Bible)
Yourself right now
Elizabeth Holmes
Eminem
Stan Smith
A random citizen of average intelligence who drinks three beers a day and has a highschool diploma
Justin Trudeau
Futarchy (Manifold users)
Nicky Case
Santa Claus
Robespierre
Yourself from 15 years ago
Greta Thunberg
@strutheo :)
Their child, who has become a juggalo, a furry, and a brony
Bill Gates
Gavin Newsom
Hillary Clinton
Walter White
Chat GPT
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Destiny
George Soros
Bill Cosby
Ellen DeGeneres
Harvey Weinstein
Kamala Harris
Ron DeSantis
A can of beans
George W. Bush
Richard Nixon
Jeremy Corbyn
Joe Biden
Julius Caesar
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Benjamin Netanyahu
Yasser Arafat
Shinzo Abe
Gus Fring
Frank Underwood
Mr Burns
Mr Krabs
Peter Griffin
Homer Simpson
Hank Hill
Cruella De Vil
Senator Armstrong (Metal Gear Rising)
Ibram X. Kendi
Rachel Dolezal
Nayib Bukele
Ayn Rand
Barack Obama
Young Sheldon
Tony Soprano
Patrick Bateman (American Psycho)
Dr Robotnik / Eggman
Vivek Ramaswamy
Taylor Swift
Joe Rogan
Javier Milei
Emmanuel Macron
Doctor Manhattan
Bill Clinton
Donkey Kong
Rudy Giuliani
An autopen (signs everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)
Sam Bankman-Fried
Cedric the Entertainer
Glenn Quagmire
Scott Adams (Dilbert cartoonist)
Gollum/Smeagol
Matthew Yglesias
Vaush
Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas
Donald Trump Jr
Napoleon Bonaparte
Jordan Peterson
Scar (lion king)
Margaret Thatcher
Andrew Johnson
Bill Ackman
Bernie Madoff
Jussie Smollet
Avon Barksdale
Yann Lecun
The nominee of the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party
Elon Musk
Paul Atreides
Cenk Uygur
Georgia Meloni
Boris Johnson
Trump from the 80s-90s
Shirley Temple
Mark Rutte
Michael Jackson
James (manifold)
Austin (manifold)
George Washington
Zaphod Beeblebrox
Mr Garrison (South Park)
Lee Pace
Muhammad the prophet
Jose Luis Ricon
BasedBeffJezos
Mike Pence
Nate Silver
Shai-Hulud (sandworms from Dune)
Confucius
hari seldon
Teddy Roosevelt
Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Angela Merkel
Jacinda Ardern
shaq
elvis
random manifold user
abe lincoln
bruce springsteen
billy joel
Rishi Sunak
Scott Alexander's Presidential Platform https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-presidential-platform
buddha
satoshi nakamoto
A citizen of above average intelligence with a college degree, but the Secret Service will stop at nothing to ensure they are crossfaded (drunk + high) at all times
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OptionProbability
Imane Khelif is intersex
The Jews control at least one nation's government
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
DHMO in the water supply
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Santa is rigged
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
√-1 isn't real
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Groundhog Day is rigged
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
John McAfee didn't kill himself
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
Dead Internet theory
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Annie Altman's abuse claims
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
Human didnt evolve from apes
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
The CIA killed JFK
Gamergate was right
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
China made covid 19 in a lab
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
Sue Gray was a spy
Harold Holt murdered
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Princess Diana was assassinated
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
A cure for cancer has already been found
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
The NFL is rigged
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
Ogopogo is real
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Israel killed JFK
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Exercise is bad for your health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
QAnon
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Bush did 9/11
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
China was not genociding Uyghurs
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Michelle Obama is a man
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
Brazilian money is not real
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
Yeti is real or similar creature
The earth is a dodecahedron
Climate change isn’t real
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
The moon landing was fake
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
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84
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76
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
40585
2464
OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Car chase scene
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Bond tells ≥1 joke
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
Bond drinks a martini
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Someone in the movie says the title
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The main theme song will be sung by a female
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
At least a portion filmed in Canada
A scene shows James Bond naked
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Death of a Bond love interest
Bond gets slapped
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Nazis (neo- counts)
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Bond wears a mask
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
At least one named character below 18 years old
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Canada is shown on screen
Sharks
Orgy
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A pinball machine will appear.
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Pirates
Assplay
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Bond has a neck tattoo
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Bond plays Russian roulette
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
98
98
97
95
94
93
92
91
90
90
90
90
87
86
85
85
84
84
83
83
82
82
81
80
77
76
75
72
70
70
69
69
69
68
68
67
66
65
65
62
62
60
58
57
57
56
56
55
55
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54
54
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53
53
53
52
51
51
50
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49
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46
45
45
45
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41
41
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25
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22
22
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21
21
21
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20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
15
15
15
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15
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14
14
14
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13
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11
10
10
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9
9
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8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
“Radical Islamic Terror(ism)” or “Radical Muslim Terror(ism)”
Fuck (or variant)
“Devil(s)” or “Satan” or “Lucifer”
Bitch (or variant/compound word)
“Bitcoin reserve” or “cryptocurrency reserve”
King
Rocket man
“Brat” or “Party girl”
Palestine (not ‘Palestine, Ohio’)
NATO freeloaders (or any variation including freeload)
Eskimo(s) or Igloo(s) or Inuit(s)
Andrew Tate
Mormon(s)
Luigi
Drag queen(s)
Bigly
Dick
Kendrick Lamar
Queen
Unicorn
Mango(es)
“K-Pop” or intentionally names artist
Retard (or variant)
Vibe(s)
Panamaga
“I love Xi” or “I love China”
Shithole(s) or Shit hole(s)
Cardi (B)
Operation Wetback
Queer (or variant)
Tyrannosaurus (or T Rex)
The F-slur, or any of its derivatives
“Glinda” or “Elphaba”
“Hawk Tuah” or “Talk Tuah” or “Haliey Welch” (including misspellings where intent is clear)
Covfefe
“Governor Pierre” or “Governor Poilievre” (including misspelled variants)
"Vriska did nothing wrong"
100
100
100
100
100
100
87
86
83
64
57
53
52
50
50
50
49
41
41
36
34
31
30
28
27
27
25
24
22
14
12
10
9
9
4
2
1
OptionProbability
J. D. Vance
Nikki Haley
Glenn Youngkin
Ron Desantis
Marco Rubio
Doug Burgum
Ted Cruz
Josh Hawley
Greg Abbott
Donald Trump
Vivek Ramaswamy
Tim Scott
Mike Johnson
Donald Trump Jr.
Elise Stefanik
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Kristi Noem
Tucker Carlson
Chuck Grassley
Chuck Norris
Satan
82
69
53
52
47
47
42
42
41
33
32
26
22
22
21
18
17
15
4
2
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1328
753
OptionVotes
YES
NO
184
78
OptionVotes
NO
YES
118
84
OptionVotes
YES
NO
386
26
OptionProbability
Gets unlisted
Still unresolved a year
Resolved by a mod (including Manifold employees), not by the creator
Resolves N/A
Closing time changes
Description changes
Resolves this year
Title changes
Cover image changes (current cover image shown in description)
Resolution gets overturned (I'll limit this to having to happen within a week of the initial resolution)
The creator actually uses some system of points to resolve it and explains how the points were allocated before resolving
Resolves NO
Resolves within a month of its current closing time (11:59 PM CT on June 24, 2024), before or after.
Resolves YES
Divine Intervention
Resolves to a percentage
80
59
55
53
48
46
38
36
33
28
24
22
20
17
14
11