OptionProbability
The Jews control at least one nation's government
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Imane Khelif is intersex
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
DHMO in the water supply
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Santa is rigged
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
√-1 isn't real
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
Groundhog Day is rigged
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
Gamergate was right
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
China was not genociding Uyghurs
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
Annie Altman's abuse claims
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
John McAfee didn't kill himself
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA
China made covid 19 in a lab
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
Dead Internet theory
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.
The CIA killed JFK
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.
The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Epstein was alive as of Jan 2026, but dead in the meantime since his "suicide"
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Princess Diana was assassinated
The NFL is rigged
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Harold Holt murdered
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
A cure for cancer has already been found
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Ogopogo is real
QAnon
Exercise is bad for your health
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Israel killed JFK
Bush did 9/11
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Epstein was still alive as of Jan 2026
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
QR codes are satanic
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Human didnt evolve from apes
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
Rationalussy isn't real.
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
Climate change isn’t real
The moon landing was fake
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
Q is Putin
Michelle Obama is a man
Brazilian money is not real
Yeti is real or similar creature
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
The earth is a dodecahedron
Skibidi Toilet is real
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
91
90
88
87
84
82
80
78
76
74
74
71
70
67
63
59
55
53
52
52
50
45
43
42
42
40
38
37
37
36
35
35
34
34
33
33
33
32
31
30
30
30
29
29
28
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
26
26
25
24
24
23
23
23
22
21
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
50335
1987
OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Car chase scene
Urban scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
World capital other than London appears on screen
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond drinks a martini
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
Q appears
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Hacking electronics of some form
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Prison/jail scene
Black market trafficking
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Bond has facial hair
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
Death of a Bond love interest
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
Bond will be in a submarine
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Nazis (neo- counts)
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Orgy
Canada is shown on screen
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A hamburger appears on screen
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Underwater combat
Bond goes to space
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Assplay
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
Bond plays Russian roulette
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
A pinball machine will appear.
Gay sex scene
Pirates
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Nuclear explosion
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
Vampires
Bond vapes
Bond won't be Caucasian
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
The fourth wall is broken
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
98
98
97
96
95
95
94
93
91
91
90
90
90
90
89
87
86
86
85
85
84
83
82
80
77
77
76
75
72
72
70
69
69
69
68
68
68
62
62
60
60
59
59
59
58
58
57
57
56
55
55
55
54
53
53
53
53
52
51
50
50
50
49
49
49
49
48
48
48
46
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
43
43
43
43
43
42
41
41
39
39
39
38
38
38
37
37
37
37
37
36
36
36
35
35
35
34
34
33
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
31
31
30
30
30
29
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
27
27
26
26
25
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
23
23
23
23
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
20
19
19
19
19
19
18
17
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
12
12
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
J. D. Vance
Nikki Haley
Marco Rubio
Ted Cruz
Glenn Youngkin
Ron Desantis
Josh Hawley
Greg Abbott
Doug Burgum
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Vivek Ramaswamy
Tim Scott
Tucker Carlson
Mike Johnson
Donald Trump Jr.
Kristi Noem
Elise Stefanik
Donald Trump
Chuck Grassley
Satan
Chuck Norris
79
62
60
56
50
49
40
39
38
31
27
24
22
20
19
17
15
14
4
1
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1439
695
OptionVotes
YES
NO
206
64
OptionVotes
YES
NO
354
28
OptionProbability
Gets unlisted
Still unresolved a year
Resolved by a mod (including Manifold employees), not by the creator
Resolves N/A
Closing time changes
Description changes
Resolves this year
Title changes
Cover image changes (current cover image shown in description)
Resolution gets overturned (I'll limit this to having to happen within a week of the initial resolution)
The creator actually uses some system of points to resolve it and explains how the points were allocated before resolving
Resolves NO
Resolves within a month of its current closing time (11:59 PM CT on June 24, 2024), before or after.
Resolves YES
Divine Intervention
Resolves to a percentage
77
59
55
53
48
46
38
36
33
28
24
22
20
17
14
11
OptionVotes
YES
NO
155
64

