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Prediction markets for Shah
Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?
Aug 11, 3:53 AMOct 1, 3:59 AM
26.5%chance
6015108
OptionVotes
16188
6463
What will be the 'classic' episodes on the 80,000 Hours podcast from 2023?
Apr 6, 3:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22711
OptionProbability
45
45
45
45
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
38
38
38
38
37
37
35
35
34
34
34
Will Destiny develop kidney stones in the next 10 years?
Jan 21, 11:33 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM
17.11%chance
182168
OptionVotes
1555
826
OptionProbability
36
14
9
8
8
8
6
4
3
3
2
0
Will the head of state of [country] officially be named [title] of that country on any day in 2039?
Feb 8, 4:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
191012
OptionProbability
52
42
40
32
29
29
27
16
12
5
5
Who will be the BJP's PM candidate for the Indian General Election expected in 2029?
Dec 11, 10:14 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM
7693
OptionProbability
34
20
16
14
6
3
2
2
2
The head of state of which [country] will first officially be named [title] of that country?
Feb 8, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
6512
OptionProbability
30
28
6
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
OptionProbability
76
64
63
59
51
50
50
OptionVotes
125
68
OptionProbability
51
17
17
15
Will Arnav Shah win EITHER an Emergent Ventures or Thiel Fellowship by 2028?
Apr 21, 10:24 AMApr 29, 6:59 AM
41.35%chance
430
OptionVotes
143
100
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