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Shah News

    Prediction markets for Shah

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    16188

    6463

    OptionProbability

    #149 – Tim LeBon on how altruistic perfectionism is self-defeating

    #151 – Ajeya Cotra on accidentally teaching AI models to deceive us

    #169 – Paul Niehaus on whether cash transfers cause economic growth, and keeping theft to acceptable levels

    #170 – Santosh Harish on how air pollution is responsible for ~12% of global deaths — and how to get that number down

    #150 – Tom Davidson on how quickly AI could transform the world

    #152 – Joe Carlsmith on navigating serious philosophical confusion

    #153 – Elie Hassenfeld on two big picture critiques of GiveWell's approach, and six lessons from their recent work

    #154 – Rohin Shah on DeepMind and trying to fairly hear out both AI doomers and doubters

    #155 – Lennart Heim on the compute governance era and what has to come after

    #156 – Markus Anderljung on how to regulate cutting-edge AI models

    #157 – Ezra Klein on existential risk from AI and what DC could do about it

    #158 – Holden Karnofsky on how AIs might take over even if they're no smarter than humans, and his 4-part playbook for AI risk

    #159 – Jan Leike on OpenAI's massive push to make superintelligence safe in 4 years or less

    #161 – Michael Webb on whether AI will soon cause job loss, lower incomes, and higher inequality — or the opposite

    #162 – Mustafa Suleyman on getting Washington and Silicon Valley to tame AI

    #163 – Toby Ord on the perils of maximising the good that you do

    #166 – Tantum Collins on what he's learned as an AI policy insider at the White House, DeepMind and elsewhere

    #168 – Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion

    #171 – Alison Young on how top labs have jeopardised public health with repeated biosafety failures

    #173 – Jeff Sebo on digital minds, and how to avoid sleepwalking into a major moral catastrophe

    #174 – Nita Farahany on the neurotechnology already being used to convict criminals and manipulate workers

    #176 – Nathan Labenz on the final push for AGI, understanding OpenAI's leadership drama, and red-teaming frontier models

    #160 – Hannah Ritchie on why it makes sense to be optimistic about the environment

    #164 – Kevin Esvelt on cults that want to kill everyone, stealth vs wildfire pandemics, and how he felt inventing gene drives

    #165 – Anders Sandberg on war in space, whether civilisations age, and the best things possible in our universe

    #175 – Lucia Coulter on preventing lead poisoning for $1.66 per child

    #145 – Christopher Brown on why slavery abolition wasn't inevitable

    #146 – Robert Long on why large language models like GPT (probably) aren't conscious

    #167 – Seren Kell on the research gaps holding back alternative proteins from mass adoption

    #172 – Bryan Caplan on why you should stop reading the news

    #144 – Athena Aktipis on why cancer is actually one of the fundamental phenomena in our universe

    #147 – Spencer Greenberg on stopping valueless papers from getting into top journals

    #148 – Johannes Ackva on unfashionable climate interventions that work, and fashionable ones that don't

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    Will Destiny develop kidney stones in the next 10 years?

    Jan 21, 11:33 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM
    17.11%chance
    182168

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1555

    826

    OptionProbability

    Narendra Modi

    Other

    Amit Shah

    Yogi Adityanath

    Devendra Fadnavis

    Rahul Gandhi

    Nitin Gadkari

    Shivraj Singh Chouhan

    Mallikarjun Kharge

    S. Jaishankar

    Arvind Kejriwal

    No one before 2030

    36

    14

    9

    8

    8

    8

    6

    4

    3

    3

    2

    0

    OptionProbability

    Shah (Iran)

    Caliph (Saudi Arabia)

    Emperor or King (Ethiopia)

    Pharaoh (Egypt)

    Emperor or King (Brazil)

    Emperor (China)

    Khan (Mongolia or controlling >10% of USSR land area)

    Emperor (France)

    Tsar (Russia)

    Emperor (European Union)

    Emperor or King (USA)

    52

    42

    40

    32

    29

    29

    27

    16

    12

    5

    5

    OptionProbability

    Narendra Modi

    Amit Shah

    Other

    Yogi Adityanath

    Shivraj Singh Chouhan

    Nitin Gadkari

    Subrahmanyam Jaishankar

    Devendra Fadnavis

    K Annamalai

    34

    20

    16

    14

    6

    3

    2

    2

    2

    OptionProbability

    None before 2070

    Shah (Iran)

    Caliph (Saudi Arabia)

    Emperor (European Union)

    Emperor or King (Ethiopia)

    Khan (Mongolia or controlling >10% of USSR land area)

    Emperor or King (USA)

    Emperor or King (Brazil)

    Pharaoh (Egypt)

    Emperor (France)

    Emperor (China)

    Tsar (Russia)

    30

    28

    6

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    Which media will I enjoy reading/watching?

    Apr 23, 6:41 PMAug 23, 6:21 PM
    13443

    OptionProbability

    The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

    Breaking Bad

    Afghan Napoleon: The Life of Ahmad Shah Massoud

    Project Lawful

    Catch 22

    Gordon Ramsay On Cocaine

    Sunspot by Yootie

    76

    64

    63

    59

    51

    50

    50

    Will Amit Shah become the PM of India before 2035?

    Oct 16, 9:21 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM
    30.06%chance
    335

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    125

    68

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Amit Shah

    Mamata Banerjee

    Rahul Gandhi

    51

    17

    17

    15

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    143

    100