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Prediction markets for Sharpe
Will the USA's population ever drop below 100 million by the end of 2025?
Jan 5, 5:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
1%chance
183187
OptionVotes
3483
916
OptionProbability
63
28
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
727
504
OptionVotes
1013
952
Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?
Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.04%chance
19700
OptionVotes
1003
994
Will low risk stocks outperform the market from now until 2026 (sharpe ratio)?
Feb 7, 4:54 AMJan 1, 8:01 AM
78.94%chance
7239
OptionVotes
162
56
Will a xenharmonic song enter the Billboard Top 100 or Spotify Top 100 tracks before 2030?
Jul 19, 2:35 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
44%chance
6216
OptionVotes
1128
886
Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?
May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40.19%chance
122
OptionVotes
122
82
Will "“Sharp Left Turn” discourse: An opinionated r..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jan 29, 11:16 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
110
OptionVotes
100
100
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