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Top stories

Liverpool’s Teenagers Sink Yokohama 3–1 in Quake-Shadowed Friendly

Liverpool’s Teenagers Sink Yokohama 3–1 in Quake-Shadowed Friendly

Authors

5

4 days ago

Prediction markets for Slot

Manifest 2025 Startup Pitch Competition - Will at least 3 companies get funding?

May 9, 3:23 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM

18.7%chance

74181000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

129217

23310

Will Biden speak at the 2028 DNC?

Sep 2, 10:16 PMSep 1, 6:59 AM

18.23%chance

211628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

212

47

In January 2026, how publicly salient will AI deepfakes/media be, vs AI labor impact, vs AI catastrophic risks?

Dec 15, 7:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

201560

OptionProbability

Labor > Catastrophic > Deepfakes

Labor > Deepfakes > Catastrophic

Catastrophic > Labor > Deepfakes

Deepfakes > Labor > Catastrophic

Catastrophic > Deepfakes > Labor

Deepfakes > Catastrophic > Labor

41

38

8

5

4

3

Who will be the winner of Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans?

Jun 2, 1:49 PMJun 2, 1:21 PM

11000

OptionProbability

Angelina Keeley

Aubry Bracco

Charlie Davis

Chrissy Hofbeck

Christian Hubicki

Cirie Fields

Coach Wade

Colby Donaldson

Dee Valladares

Emily Flippen

Genevieve Mushaluk

Jenna Lewis

Joe Hunter

Jonathan Young

Kamilla Karthigesu

Mike White

Ozzy Lusth

Q Burdette

Rick Devens

Stephenie LaGrossa

Tiffany Nicole Ervin

Survivor 49 Placeholder [Male Castaway - See Contingency rules]

Survivor 49 Placeholder [Female Castaway - See Contingency rules]

No member of the announced cast [See Contingency rules]

Kyle Fraser

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

1

A way to set up an LLM to send and receive physical mail by mid 2029

Mar 8, 6:58 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

70.48%chance

4545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1545

647

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.72%chance

6380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1459

987

Will the Sloth Bear (Melursus ursinus) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 22, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.58%chance

9310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

640

431

Will Trump speak at the 2028 RNC?

Sep 3, 10:51 PMSep 1, 6:59 AM

61.27%chance

10269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

80

"The Merge": When will Ethereum have single-slot finality?

Dec 31, 2:56 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

4219

OptionProbability

By 2026-01-01

By 2024-04-01

By 2024-07-01

By 2025-01-01

78

0

0

0

Given a PRC invasion which controls Taiwan for at least a month, will there be real resistance fighters, through 2034

Sep 11, 4:05 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

54.23%chance

10175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

212

147

Will Microstrategy have to pay any federal income taxes on unrealised gains on its cryptocurrency holdings in 2026?

Jan 28, 10:37 PMJan 1, 2:59 PM

15.38%chance

3145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

235

43

Will Elissa Slotkin or Tammy Baldwin end up voting for a Trump nominee that >=3 Republican senators vote against?

Nov 8, 1:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.96%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

625

576

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