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Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033
Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
59.34%chance
1086968
OptionVotes
1899
962
By January 2026, will we have a language model with similar performance to GPT-3.5 (i.e. ChatGPT as of Feb-23) that is small enough to run locally on the highest end iPhone available at the time?
Feb 13, 2:52 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM
92.93%chance
264550
OptionVotes
1739
875
Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027
Aug 17, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32.93%chance
583966
OptionVotes
1411
675
Will the switch from 100LL (leaded aviation gas) to 100UL (unleaded aviation gas) cause small airports to become a thing of the past due to a lack of sufficient revenue?
Nov 18, 8:32 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM
77.35%chance
113705
OptionVotes
1046
973
Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?
Sep 26, 6:44 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM
36.36%chance
382620
OptionVotes
1318
1115
Will a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) for electricity generation be operating in Australia by Jan 1 2035?
Aug 4, 2:58 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM
23.41%chance
271172
OptionVotes
1205
913
[Metaculus] Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?
Nov 3, 5:26 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM
21.94%chance
14672
OptionVotes
1338
873
Will a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) enter commercial operation in the US before 2030?
Oct 9, 10:28 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
67.78%chance
10415
OptionVotes
1094
945
AI "devops" #3: Will there be an AI that can manage a small cluster by 2030?
May 4, 9:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
75.41%chance
9385
OptionVotes
251
128
If LMs store info as features in superposition, are there >300K features in GPT-2 small L7? (see desc)
May 29, 6:05 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM
59.25%chance
13286
OptionVotes
1009
990
Will the FDA approve MAIA Biotechnology's THIO-101 for the treatment of advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer by Jan 2030?
Oct 26, 3:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
84.32%chance
3111
OptionVotes
183
47
Will "AI-enabled coups: a small group could use AI ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jun 27, 5:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
114
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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