Stamp News

call someone retarded through text or speech

Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)

A literal red line on the ground/floor

complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela

Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.

repeal or reform the dietary guidelines

request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts

refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state

explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue

complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican

Causes Tina Peters' early release

new blockade of a country

pass 500 or more executive orders

put his name on a ship in the navy

have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally

resume buying oil from Russia

forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc

declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country

request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts

order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen

Stays alive

Revoke ten or more citizenships

issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future

ten or more protestors killed during term

request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts

sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries

File lawsuit against a congressperson

complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)

Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election

Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws

Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground

Dep

have a journalist arrested

call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician

Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)

Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes

closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)

Enforce the Comstock Act at least once

Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.

sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission

Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools

have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025

His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory

Raise the retirement age for social security

Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)

Nominate a family member to high office

have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason

Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson

Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture

get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia

Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025

Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)

Raise contribution limits (FEC)

add a new federal holiday in his honor

Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress

Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere

Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)

call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech

revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like

remove a major non NATO ally from the current list

Pardon a convicted pedophile

Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest

Enact price controls on groceries

Says 6 7 (or variant)

repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025

Add a citizenship question to the census

End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)

host putin at mar a lago

Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)

federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)

force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt

complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)

Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill

Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)

Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)

classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire

department of defense renamed to Dept of war

Pardon himself

Get rid of Noaa.

delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday

force a former president to testify before Congress

Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

appoint a family member to lead any federal agency

declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon

Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime

Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities

enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like

Causes derek chauvin's early release

Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)

Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)

Postpone the elections due to emergency

Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO

Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics

Pardon ghislaine maxwell

stops all sanctions on Russia

Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education

Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps

Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.

All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump

Withdraw from NATO

Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis

repeal Obamacare

pardon derek chauvin

admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely

Call for the death penalty of any former president by name

federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms

debank a congressperson governor or mayor

announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA

expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new

Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025

Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency

cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason

Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons

actually disinter bodies from another country

Call for the end of child marriage

Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day

Attack a NATO ally.

Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS

Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906

change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again

orders arrests of any Biden family member

Annex any part of Mexico

Prosecute someone for flag burning

cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down

Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security

Prevent the VA from covering abortion services

Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation

Replace his Vice President

Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt

Announce he’s running for a third term

Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection

Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)

Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)

expand the borders of the usa

remove tax exempt from only certain religions

have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed

threaten to disinter bodies from another country

Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)

fauci in jail at least one week

take control of a part of ukraine

add a new state

pardon george santos

take state ownership in an airline

Call for the end of the House of Reps

Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990

changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)

take control of a part of greenland

ends black history month

Eliminate the DOE Loan Program

Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act

Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard

New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)

Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.

Call for the end of gay marriage

Fully or partially privatize Social Security

Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program

Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment

ban trans people from holding federal offices

make statements that are negative about labubu

confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself

Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment

breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza

fully nationalize an airline

Salute Putin

Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

stop California from hosting the Olympics

confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person

Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics

ban all new incoming students from china and/or india

Pardon p diddy

Implement a federal age of consent

Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.

change or add a face on Mount Rushmore

change the borders of a state

breaks ground on a trump building in Russia

Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war

repeal an amendment

declares a white history month

Implement a federal abortion ban

give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia

enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea

Call for the end of the Senate

all time high unemployment reached

Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture

Call for the end of interracial marriage

After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy

bans anime

bans 6 7

Wearing a white dress after labor day

Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system

Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC

Sexism and racism, among other forms of prejudice, are responsible for worse health outcomes, and it’s not overly dramatic for people to treat those issues as public health/safety concerns.

Prediction markets are good

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

[*] ...and things will improve in the future

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

Authoritarian populism is bad actually

Prolonged school closures because of COVID were socially devastating.

Nuclear power is by far the best solution to climate change. [N]

Most organized religion are false

The Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics

Humans have a responsibility to figure out what if anything we can do about wildlife suffering.

Pineapple pizza tastes good

First-past-the-post electoral systems are not merely flawed but outright less democratic than proportional or preferential alternatives

Liberal-democracy is good actually

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

Peeing in the shower is good and everyone should do it

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

We need a bigger welfare state than we have now.

Many amphetamines and psychedelics have tremendous therapeutic value when guided by an established practitioner.

The proliferation of microplastics will be viewed as more harmful to the environment than burning fossil fuels, in the long term

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

Metaculus will take over Manifold in more serious topics, and Manifold will be known as the "unserious" prediction market site

American agents are in the highest positions in government for more than half the world.

We should give every American food stamps, in a fixed dollar amount, with no means testing or work requirements or disqualification for criminal convictions.

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

Dreams analysis is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.

Given what we know about the social and health effects of being fired, even if abolishing at will employment has efficiency costs it is likely worth it.

Mobile UX will be a key explaining factor in explaining the stories of Manifold and Metaculus.

The overall state of the world is pretty good... [*]

If a developed nation moves from democratic to authoritarian government today, it should be expected to end up poorer, weaker, sicker, and stupider.

California is wildly overrated.

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

The United States doesn't need a strong third party.

Political libertarianism

Racial Colorblindness is the only way to defeat racism

People will look back on using animal products as a moral disgrace on the level of chattel slavery.

There's a reasonable chance of a militant green/communist movement that gains popular support in the coming decade.

[N], and to the extent climate activists are promoting other kinds of solutions, they are actively making the situation worse by diverting attention and resources from nuclear power.

Being a billionaire is morally wrong.

Eating meat is morally wrong in most cases.

You should bet NO on this option

The Windows kernel is better than Linux; it’s just all the bloat piled on top that makes it worse

White people are the least racist of any racial group

Technology is not making our lives easier or more fulfilling.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

God is evil

A sandwich is a type of hot dog

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development.

Astrology is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.

It's acceptable for our systems of punishment to be retributive in part

Mereological nihilism (composite objects don't exist)

China not having real democracy does more good than harm

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

Governments should not support parents for having children that they cannot take care of

Reincarnation is a real phenomenon

Dentistry is mostly wasted effort.

Moral Hazard isn’t real, and all the purported instances of it can be chalked up to coincidence or confounding variables

Donald Trump would have been a better president than Joe Biden

Mass surveillance (security cameras everywhere) has more positives than negatives

Future generations will say that on balance the world reacted appropriately after learning that fossil fuels cause climate change. That the balance between addressing the problem and slowing economies was just about right.

The next American moon landing will be faked

SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

Humans don't have free will.

AI art is better than human art

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

Communism just wasn't implemented well, next time it will work

The first American moon landing was faked

The human race should voluntarily choose to go extinct via nonviolent means (antinatalism).

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

Someone mentions Brian McManus

We get an episode of The Snack Zone

Amy from Wendover Productions is mentioned

An athlete drinks bubble tea

HSR Stations are claimable

This season has more than five episodes

An athlete says that any athlete needs to "lock in" **

This season has more than six episodes

An athlete rides one of Taiwan's branch lines ***

Sam says "We are so back" **

An athlete mentions Chiang Kai-shek

Ben gets drunk (canonically)

We see Taipei 101

Someone mentions the Japanese colonial period

Any sitting Taiwanese or Chinese politician is mentioned by name

Sam mentions Formula One

An athlete mentions Xi Jinping

Exactly one team will visit Ruisui station

At least one athlete fully circumnavigates the island

Sam mentions Choo Choo Chew

We see a lighthouse

Neither team rides the HSR on at least one game day

Someone mentions the sugar railways

The winning team has a score of at least 122 stations

Someone says "that's just how the jets lag" **

An athlete has to answer a riddle

An athlete eats "Small sausage in big sausage"

An athlete says Taiwan Number One

This season has more than seven episodes

An athlete eats stinky tofu

At least one athlete is audibly confused by two different English spellings of the same place

An athlete mentions "cooked goose" **

Someone mentions Taiwan's indigenous peoples

A team takes a bus

An athlete swims

An athlete rides one of Taiwan's light rail lines ****

An athlete travels by boat (A->B)

An athlete rides a bicycle

An athlete rides the Alishan Forest Railway

We see Sun Moon Lake

We see Taroko Gorge

An athlete goes above 1000m in altitude

Every claimable station is claimed *****

One of the Jet Leg trio tweets about this market before the finale*

Adam sings part of "Let's go to the beach, each (Starships)"

Someone eats fondue

Adam wears a wig

We get an episode of Ben's Shower Corner

NO

YES

YES

YES

YES

NO

YES