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call someone retarded through text or speech

Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)

A literal red line on the ground/floor

complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela

classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire

Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.

Not pardon SBF

repeal or reform the dietary guidelines

explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue

request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts

Causes Tina Peters' early release

complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

Says 6 7 (or variant)

pass 500 or more executive orders

intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican

put his name on a ship in the navy

new blockade of a country

Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)

refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state

have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally

sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission

forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc

request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts

Pardon himself

Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest

complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

Stays alive

request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts

sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries

File lawsuit against a congressperson

declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country

resume buying oil from Russia

Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws

Dep

call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician

have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025

Revoke ten or more citizenships

ten or more protestors killed during term

Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities

Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program

Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools

Raise the retirement age for social security

closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)

order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen

Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)

Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)

Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)

Nominate a family member to high office

Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS

have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason

Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson

Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture

get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia

Call for the end of the Senate

Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025

Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)

Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.

add a new federal holiday in his honor

have a journalist arrested

Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress

Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere

Postpone the elections due to emergency

Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes

Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO

call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech

remove a major non NATO ally from the current list

Pardon a convicted pedophile

repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025

End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)

host putin at mar a lago

Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)

Salute Putin

Enforce the Comstock Act at least once

Raise contribution limits (FEC)

federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)

force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt

complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

postpones or cancels 2026 senate elections in at least one state

Announce he’s running for a third term

repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)

Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill

issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future

department of defense renamed to Dept of war

Get rid of Noaa.

force a former president to testify before Congress

appoint a family member to lead any federal agency

Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime

Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)

enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like

Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground

Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)

Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment

Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)

revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like

Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics

Implement a federal age of consent

Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps

Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.

Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election

federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms

All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump

Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis

repeal Obamacare

pardon derek chauvin

admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely

Add a citizenship question to the census

confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person

debank a congressperson governor or mayor

Enact price controls on groceries

announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA

expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new

Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025

Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons

actually disinter bodies from another country

Call for the end of child marriage

Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day

stops all sanctions on Russia

Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906

change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again

orders arrests of any Biden family member

delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday

Prosecute someone for flag burning

His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory

cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down

Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.

Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education

Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security

Prevent the VA from covering abortion services

Replace his Vice President

Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt

Causes derek chauvin's early release

declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon

Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection

cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason

Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture

Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)

Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)

Attack a NATO ally.

Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)

expand the borders of the usa

remove tax exempt from only certain religions

have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed

threaten to disinter bodies from another country

all time high unemployment reached

Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)

fauci in jail at least one week

take control of a part of ukraine

pardon george santos

take state ownership in an airline

Withdraw from NATO

Call for the death penalty of any former president by name

Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990

Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency

ban trans people from holding federal offices

changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)

change or add a face on Mount Rushmore

Annex any part of Mexico

ends black history month

Eliminate the DOE Loan Program

Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act

take control of a part of greenland

ban all new incoming students from china and/or india

Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard

Call for the end of gay marriage

Fully or partially privatize Social Security

Call for the end of the House of Reps

Pardon p diddy

make statements that are negative about labubu

Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation

Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment

breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza

Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war

fully nationalize an airline

New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)

Pardon ghislaine maxwell

stop California from hosting the Olympics

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics

Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

declares a white history month

Implement a federal abortion ban

Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC

Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation

confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself

Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA

change the borders of a state

breaks ground on a trump building in Russia

repeal an amendment

Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.

give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia

add a new state

enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea

After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy

Call for the end of interracial marriage

Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

bans anime

Wearing a white dress after labor day

Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace

bans 6 7

Prediction markets are good

Sexism and racism, among other forms of prejudice, are responsible for worse health outcomes, and it’s not overly dramatic for people to treat those issues as public health/safety concerns.

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

[*] ...and things will improve in the future

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

Authoritarian populism is bad actually

Prolonged school closures because of COVID were socially devastating.

Nuclear power is by far the best solution to climate change. [N]

Most organized religion are false

The Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics

Humans have a responsibility to figure out what if anything we can do about wildlife suffering.

Pineapple pizza tastes good

First-past-the-post electoral systems are not merely flawed but outright less democratic than proportional or preferential alternatives

Liberal-democracy is good actually

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

Peeing in the shower is good and everyone should do it

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

We need a bigger welfare state than we have now.

Many amphetamines and psychedelics have tremendous therapeutic value when guided by an established practitioner.

The proliferation of microplastics will be viewed as more harmful to the environment than burning fossil fuels, in the long term

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

Metaculus will take over Manifold in more serious topics, and Manifold will be known as the "unserious" prediction market site

American agents are in the highest positions in government for more than half the world.

We should give every American food stamps, in a fixed dollar amount, with no means testing or work requirements or disqualification for criminal convictions.

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

Dreams analysis is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.

Given what we know about the social and health effects of being fired, even if abolishing at will employment has efficiency costs it is likely worth it.

Mobile UX will be a key explaining factor in explaining the stories of Manifold and Metaculus.

The overall state of the world is pretty good... [*]

If a developed nation moves from democratic to authoritarian government today, it should be expected to end up poorer, weaker, sicker, and stupider.

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

California is wildly overrated.

Political libertarianism

The United States doesn't need a strong third party.

Racial Colorblindness is the only way to defeat racism

People will look back on using animal products as a moral disgrace on the level of chattel slavery.

There's a reasonable chance of a militant green/communist movement that gains popular support in the coming decade.

[N], and to the extent climate activists are promoting other kinds of solutions, they are actively making the situation worse by diverting attention and resources from nuclear power.

Being a billionaire is morally wrong.

Eating meat is morally wrong in most cases.

You should bet NO on this option

The Windows kernel is better than Linux; it’s just all the bloat piled on top that makes it worse

White people are the least racist of any racial group

Technology is not making our lives easier or more fulfilling.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

God is evil

A sandwich is a type of hot dog

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development.

Astrology is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.

It's acceptable for our systems of punishment to be retributive in part

Mereological nihilism (composite objects don't exist)

China not having real democracy does more good than harm

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

Governments should not support parents for having children that they cannot take care of

Reincarnation is a real phenomenon

Dentistry is mostly wasted effort.

Moral Hazard isn’t real, and all the purported instances of it can be chalked up to coincidence or confounding variables

Donald Trump would have been a better president than Joe Biden

Mass surveillance (security cameras everywhere) has more positives than negatives

Future generations will say that on balance the world reacted appropriately after learning that fossil fuels cause climate change. That the balance between addressing the problem and slowing economies was just about right.

The next American moon landing will be faked

SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

Humans don't have free will.

AI art is better than human art

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

Communism just wasn't implemented well, next time it will work

The first American moon landing was faked

The human race should voluntarily choose to go extinct via nonviolent means (antinatalism).

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

Someone mentions Brian McManus

We get an episode of The Snack Zone

Amy from Wendover Productions is mentioned

An athlete has to answer a riddle

An athlete eats sushi

Any athlete references any Nintendo character

Adam sings part of "Let's go to the beach, each (Starships)"

An athlete speaks Japanese

This season has more than five episodes

This season has more than six episodes

Sam says "We are so back" **

We see Mount Fuji

An athlete doesn't visit Tokyo during game time

Someone buys a gachapon

Someone says "that's just how the jets lag" **

We see a samurai sword

An athlete eats ramen

Ben gets drunk (canonically)

An athlete rides a bicycle

An athlete swims

Sam mentions Formula One

Sam shows the camera a plane with pokemon, hello kitty or star wars characters on it

We get an episode of Choo Choo Chew

We see a monkey in the same frame as Ben

Tom says "I am at"

One of the Jet Leg trio tweets about this market before the finale*

Adam wears a wig

2031-2032

2029-2030

2033-2034

Before end of 2028

2035-2036

Not before 2037

YES

NO

YES

YES

YES

NO

Issue passports

Mint coinage

Print paper money

Grant nobility, title or other acknowledgement of special worth

make postage stamps

Issue ID cards

Grant citizenships or other similar status specific to persons

Specific type of land holdings deriving from the principality

YES