OptionProbability
Elon Musk
Other
Jensen Huang
Larry Page
Sam Altman
Jeff Bezos
Larry Ellison
Mark Zuckerberg
Bernard Arnault
Masayoshi Son
An AGI
Satoshi Nakamoto
Sergey Brin
Donald Trump
Michael Saylor
Bill Gates
Warren Buffett
me
Steve Ballmer
Gautam Adani
Mukesh Ambani
Brian Armstrong
Changpeng “CZ” Zhao
Tim Draper
Jack Dorsey
Winklevoss Tyler/Cameron
@Mira
Vladimir Putin
Michael Dell
Amancio Ortega
Carlos Slim Helu
Vitalik Buterin
Eric Schmidt
Dave Tepper
Ken Griffin
Eduardo Saverin
Morris Chang
41
25
8
5
3
2
1
0
Large (multiple 1sts, up to 10M)
Medium (~1 first round pick, ~1M)
Massive (ban/void, similar to Joe Smith)
Small (no first round picks)
Minor (a small fine, no picks)
None (full exoneration)
29
24
17
15
10
OptionVotes
YES
NO
389
85
Dario Amodei
Mohammed bin Salman
[blank]
36
6
4
144
69
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