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Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Støre Visits Kyiv, Pledges $8.5 Billion Military and Civilian Aid for Ukraine in 2026

1 year ago

MANA MERCH SHOP: Which designs will be added to the mana merch store?

Oct 22, 8:28 PMDec 4, 7:40 PM

10255149

OptionProbability

The Manifold Logo

“Anti gambling gambling club” - by andri

Trustworthy-ish - by Pat Scott

"The Lootbox Lies" - Pat Scott

“Put your Mana where your mouth is” - by MIMIR MAGNVS

Cranes In Form - by Pat Scott

“This meeting could have been a market” - by andri

“Calibrated measures” - by andri

“ I just lost mana because of that” - by andri

“my waifu / predicts the future" - Pat Scott

“It’s not 🤮crypto🤮 it’s play money” - by andri

100

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM

67.26%chance

758057

OptionVotes

YES

1135

938

Will Netflix's brick and mortar stores fail by end of 2026?

Dec 22, 2:59 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6.49%chance

172672

OptionVotes

YES

2922

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.46%chance

191770

OptionVotes

YES

2102

476

Will Nectome have a legally separate nonprofit dedicated to storing patients by the end of the year?

Mar 18, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.05%chance

121605

OptionVotes

YES

1529

654

Will we be able to sell the manifest dragon shirt designed by @etirabys in the manifold merch store?

Jan 26, 7:57 PMDec 31, 7:56 PM

65.95%chance

7751

OptionVotes

YES

1392

719

Will "Store Now Decrypt Later" attacks be responsible for the theft of >$1B of funds by 2030?

Mar 20, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.82%chance

11682

OptionVotes

YES

1566

812

Will I use "just walk out" style grocery stores more often than not in 2030?

Mar 24, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.27%chance

18640

OptionVotes

YES

1352

876

Will parents be able to store data in their children's DNA by 2070?

Aug 25, 8:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

49.04%chance

18486

OptionVotes

YES

1027

963

If LMs store info as features in superposition, are there >300K features in GPT-2 small L7? (see desc)

May 29, 6:05 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

59.25%chance

13286

OptionVotes

YES

1009

990

Will there be a slay the spire, the board game, version in the steam store?

Jun 8, 1:34 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

45.42%chance

4200

OptionVotes

YES

1096

912

Will WeChat be available in the Google play store continuously through mid 2028?

Jan 2, 8:11 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1000

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Aug 25, 2025
Aug 25, 2025
Norway
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Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Støre Visits Kyiv, Pledges $8.5 Billion Military and Civilian Aid for Ukraine in 2026
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1 year ago

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MANA MERCH SHOP: Which designs will be added to the mana merch store?

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

Will Netflix's brick and mortar stores fail by end of 2026?

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Will Nectome have a legally separate nonprofit dedicated to storing patients by the end of the year?

Will we be able to sell the manifest dragon shirt designed by @etirabys in the manifold merch store?

Will "Store Now Decrypt Later" attacks be responsible for the theft of >$1B of funds by 2030?

Will I use "just walk out" style grocery stores more often than not in 2030?

Will parents be able to store data in their children's DNA by 2070?

If LMs store info as features in superposition, are there >300K features in GPT-2 small L7? (see desc)

Will there be a slay the spire, the board game, version in the steam store?

Will WeChat be available in the Google play store continuously through mid 2028?

Latest stories

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