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Prediction markets for Streeting
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on Sesame Street by 2030?
Mar 9, 3:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3.09%chance
8410698
OptionVotes
446
250
Will there still be a bi-directional center bike lane on Valencia Street in San Francisco at the end of 2025?
May 21, 3:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
1.44%chance
88041
OptionVotes
8287
121
Will there be a Wall Street Stock Market Crash before 2027?
Nov 6, 11:11 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM
95.67%chance
255467
OptionVotes
4518
180
When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles?
Mar 3, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
292566
OptionProbability
72
56
32
11
0
Effective Altruist purge at Jane Street before Oct. 2025
Oct 2, 7:25 AMOct 1, 9:59 PM
3.4%chance
262348
OptionVotes
2186
891
Jane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+?
Jul 5, 11:39 AMJul 6, 11:33 AM
32.12%chance
221729
OptionVotes
1454
688
OptionVotes
2025
494
OptionVotes
1143
875
OptionVotes
1801
903
OptionVotes
2246
1866
Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
14.42%chance
15577
OptionVotes
1455
887
Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?
Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
47.81%chance
16269
OptionVotes
1023
968
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