Styles News

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.47%chance

335126206

OptionVotes

YES

6451

596

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.99%chance

10741945

OptionVotes

YES

11036

9044

Relationship Style Stonks

Mar 25, 9:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5713059

OptionProbability

Other

BDSM

Power couple

"Fun while it lasted"

Me + *Her*

Keynesian beauty contest

Spinning rapidly in opposite directions

Polyamory

Monogamy

Relationship Futarchy

Human + Robot

Enemies to Lovers

Co-conspirators

Philosophically incompatible

Conjoined twinks

Horizontal gene transfer

borgie

Relationship Anarchy

Platonic

Wild Lovers

Friends with Benefits

Relationship constitutional republic: people in it have systemically different levels of power and decision-making influence

Forever alone

Glucose guardian/splenda spender/sugar daddy

Hobbesian

Hive / Swarm / Superorganism

Traditional marriage of two cis straight White Christian vanilla people where the man "leads" and is 0-4 years older than the woman, with 2.5 kids (not counting any LGBTQIA+ ones) and a McMansion with 2.5 SUVs/trucks

Universal love

merged consciousness

Rationalussy

Vespertine

liking/reacting to even their most meaningless posts and comments on social media and prediction markets

Matriarchy

Labor Union

Socratic

One with an IPO (Intimate Partnership Offer)

Just being one helluva slut

Beard

Paradixical

Friends with Detriments

NP-complete

The Apprentice

Hell's Kitchen

Stockholm Syndrome

London Syndrome

Financial Domination

The Price is Right

Crows

Single by choice (except it's other people's choice)

Budget horse

assortative

Hubris quest

Fiends with benefits

Envenomation

Polygamy

Polyandry

Ethical Non-Monogamy

Unethical Non-Monogamy

Celibacy

Aromanticism

Solo poly

Open relationship

Polyfidelity

What's a "relationship"?

Reflexive

Symmetric

Transitive

Metamour

Socially enforced monogamy

Unreciprocated love

Asexual romance

Abusive

"This is my emotional support Ex"

FWB

Enemies-To-Lovers

Codependent

Transference

Monogamish

Voyeuristic

Love triangle

Romantic Mutual Suicide

Mutuals

Animalistic

Human + AI

parasocial

Polycule

Cuckold

Throuple

Boyce-Codd normal form

Aristotelian

Partners in crime, like Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried

I like big butts and I cannot lie

I like big butts and I cannot tell the truth, how will you escape our dungeon

"I'll never admit to anyone that we met on Tinder"

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

YES

1846

1470

Will Trump call for further regulation or banning of AR-15 style rifles by the end of 2025?

Jul 14, 6:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.13%chance

263046

OptionVotes

YES

3978

1336

Ukraine conducts another Trojan-style attack before 2026?

Jun 2, 3:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.46%chance

291729

OptionVotes

YES

1908

524

How long until AI can generate original pages of an "I Spy" style picture book?

Jan 7, 8:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

42.92%chance

17822

OptionProbability

YES

1097

737

Will a single model have all the upsides o1-style RL with none of the downsides at 2027?

Nov 20, 5:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

58.13%chance

10822

OptionVotes

YES

1178

849

Will Manifold add Metaculus style probability-distribution answers before 2033?

Dec 10, 8:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.71%chance

12507

OptionVotes

YES

1115

915

Will I use "just walk out" style grocery stores more often than not in 2030?

Mar 24, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.77%chance

16500

OptionVotes

YES

1252

898

AutoGPT style agents will prove in the longer run the proper way to get automation of medium complexity tasks.

Apr 29, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.75%chance

10389

OptionVotes

YES

1187

907

Ten years after Trump’s departure from politics, will he see a George Bush style approval ratings bump?

Apr 21, 2:35 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

26.26%chance

15235

OptionVotes

YES

1089

950

Styles News

Prediction markets for Styles

Prediction markets for Styles

Prediction markets for Styles

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Relationship Style Stonks

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Will Trump call for further regulation or banning of AR-15 style rifles by the end of 2025?

Ukraine conducts another Trojan-style attack before 2026?

How long until AI can generate original pages of an "I Spy" style picture book?

Will a single model have all the upsides o1-style RL with none of the downsides at 2027?

Will Manifold add Metaculus style probability-distribution answers before 2033?

Will I use "just walk out" style grocery stores more often than not in 2030?

AutoGPT style agents will prove in the longer run the proper way to get automation of medium complexity tasks.

Ten years after Trump’s departure from politics, will he see a George Bush style approval ratings bump?

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