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Suleyman News

    Prediction markets for Suleyman

    Who will be guests on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast in 2026?

    Nov 27, 12:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    3627620

    OptionProbability

    Elon Musk

    Robert Caro

    Ajeya Cotra

    David Reich

    Noam Brown

    Jensen Huang

    Dylan Patel (as guest)

    Dwarkesh Patel (see note)

    roon

    Jack Clark

    Yann LeCun

    Sarah Paine

    Nicholas Carlini

    Sundar Pichai

    Dean Spears

    Ilya Sutskever

    Joscha Bach

    Paul J Werbos

    Dean Ball

    Michael Dell

    Nick Bostrom

    Hans Moravec

    Demis Hassabis

    Satya Nadella

    Holden Karnofsky

    Sam Altman

    Matt Levine

    Jeff Bezos

    Michael Levin

    Amanda Askell

    Daniel Kokotajlo

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    Ian Morris

    Mira Murati

    Mustafa Suleyman

    Alec Radford

    Joe Carlsmith

    Carl Shulman

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Dan Hendrycks

    Liang Wenfeng (CEO of DeepSeek)

    Zvi Mowshowitz

    Andrej Karpathy

    George Hotz

    Barack Obama

    Bill Gates

    Tanner Greer

    Tamay Besiroglu

    Xiao Hong (CEO of Manus AI)

    Doris Taylor

    Janus @repligate

    Scott Alexander

    Gary Marcus

    François Chollet

    Donald Trump

    Nate Soares

    Helen Toner

    Kamala Harris

    Bill Clinton

    Joe Henrich

    Tyler Cowen

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    24

    19

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    8

    8

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    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    AI equivalent of IPCC before 2027?

    Jan 12, 9:21 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    87.89%chance
    10649

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    320

    25

    Which of these AI executives will spend a night in jail or prison between 26 Sep 2026 and EOY 2031?

    Sep 26, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    2498

    OptionProbability

    Elon Musk (SpaceXAI)

    Sam Altman (OpenAI)

    Liang Wenfeng (DeepSeek)

    Dario Amodei (Anthropic)

    Emad Mostaque (Stability AI)

    Dario Amodei (Anthropic)

    Jensen Huang (Nvidia)

    Mark Zuckerberg (Meta)

    Sundar Pichai (Google)

    Satya Nadella (Microsoft)

    Demis Hassabis (Google)

    Mustafa Suleyman (Microsoft)

    Alexandr Wang (Meta)

    5

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    AI equivalent of IPCC before 2030?

    Jan 12, 9:17 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    93%chance
    8386

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    472

    36

    Mustafa Suleyman out of Microsoft by EOY 2028?

    Nov 12, 7:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    72.19%chance
    381

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    161

    62

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