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Tao News

    Prediction markets for Tao

    Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?

    Aug 21, 7:36 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM
    12032713538

    OptionProbability

    Bill Gates

    Elon Musk

    Mr. Beast

    Jeff Bezos

    Barack Obama

    Other

    Robert Caro

    Ilya Sutskever

    Donald Trump

    Sam Altman

    Gwern Branwen

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    JD Vance

    pope Francis

    Jensen Huang

    Kamala Harris

    Buffett

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Peter Thiel

    No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

    Sarah Paine

    Tim Cook

    Satya Nadella

    Justin Trudeau

    Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)

    Narendra Modi

    Xi Jinping

    Dalai Lama

    Taylor Swift

    Joe Biden

    Lebron James

    GPT-5

    Bill Clinton

    A basketball player

    Vladimir Putin

    Jesus Christ

    Rona Wang

    Jose Luis ricon

    Kettner Griswold

    James Koppel

    Sam Bankman-Fried

    Nancy Pelosi

    Rishi Sunak

    Keir Starmer

    Satoshi Nakomoto

    Jimmy Carter

    George W Bush

    Al Gore

    Michael Jackson

    your mom

    roon

    Mitt Romney

    one or both of his parents

    A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"

    Connor Duffy

    MBS

    Geoffrey Hinton

    Scott Alexander

    The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)

    Leonardo DiCaprio

    RFK Jr

    Sydney Sweeney

    growing_daniel

    greg16676935420

    Deadpool

    Terence Tao

    Shaq

    Oprah Winfrey

    Yoshua Bengio

    Sundar Pichai

    Scarlett Johansson

    Paul McCartney

    [duplicate]

    Neel Nanda

    King Charles

    Kim Jong Un

    Gavin Newsom

    Royal Palace

    [cancelled option]

    Daniel Yergin

    Peter Singer

    Gabe Newell

    Neil Gorsuch

    Stephen Breyer

    Dmitry Medvedev

    JK Rowling

    Shrek

    Sam Hyde

    [invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

    Marques Brownlee

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Donald Trump Jr.

    Ben Shindel

    Javier Milei

    Dylan Patel

    Joe Rogan

    Marc Andreessen

    Mike Tyson

    Jake Paul

    Matt Gaetz

    16

    15

    11

    9

    8

    8

    4

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

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    0

    0

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    0

    0

    0

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    0

    Greatest Mathematician of all time

    Aug 11, 11:37 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM
    18529054

    OptionProbability

    Gauss

    Archimedes

    Euler

    Other

    Alexander Grothendieck

    Euclid (of Geometry)

    Erdos (on amphetamines)

    Von Neumann

    Ramanujan

    Newton

    Kurt Gödel

    Terry Tao

    David Hilbert

    Riemann

    Augustin-Louis Cauchy

    Pythagoras

    Galois (died at 20 fighting for a girl he loved)

    Alonzo Chuch (lambda calculus)

    Matt Damon (of Good Will Hunting)

    Poincare

    Finkelstein (of the levi finkelstein conjecture)

    Mandelbrot (The B in Benoit B Mandelbrot is Benoit B Mandelbrot)

    Trick question; there are no mathematicians.

    Idk, your mom seemed pretty good at multiplying last night

    sixtynine, you filthy casuals

    David A. Cox (Cox-Zucker machine)

    The solver of the Riemann Hypothesis

    Ludwig Wittgenstein

    John Conway (group theory, among others)

    the unknown ancient egyptian who invented zero

    Descartes

    Leibniz

    Bourbaki

    Laplace

    @Mira

    Georg Cantor

    Frank Ramsey

    Fermat

    Emmy Noether

    Ada Lovelace

    .

    p

    DottedCalculator

    GPT8

    Claude Shannon

    God

    Alan Turing

    Grigori Perelman

    Olga Ladyzhenskaya

    Weyl, Weyl

    John Gabriel

    Michael Atiyah

    43

    20

    18

    4

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Who will endorse Yudkowsky and Soares' book?

    May 15, 11:06 AMNov 16, 11:45 AM
    11714603

    OptionProbability

    Max Tegmark

    Emmett Shear

    Bruce Schneier

    George Church

    Scott Aaronson

    Daniel Kokotajlo

    Ben Bernanke

    Stephen Fry

    Tim Urban

    Grimes

    Scott Alexander

    A former Fed Chair

    Neel Nanda

    A professor of a Chinese university

    Stuart Russell

    Toby Ord

    Yoshua Bengio

    Geoffrey Hinton

    Carl Feynman

    Vitalik Buterin

    Nick Bostrom

    Yuval Noah Harari

    Dwarkesh Patel

    Kevin Roose

    Geoffrey Irving

    Billy Perrigo

    Manifold

    Gwern

    Helen Toner

    Ezra Klein

    Patrick McKenzie

    Publishers Weekly

    Vox

    Christine Peterson

    Keach Hagey

    Bill Gates

    Evan Hubinger

    Joe Rogan

    Kurzgesagt

    San Francisco Chronicle

    Booklist

    NPR

    Politico

    Lex Fridman

    The Economist

    Matthew Yglesias

    David Chalmers

    Peter Singer

    A former US Secretary of Treasury

    A former US Secretary of State

    BBC

    Time

    Any five current members of the UK Parliament

    A former US Secretary of Energy

    A former US Secretary of Commerce

    Tucker Carlson

    WIRED

    Eric Schmidt

    Gillian Hadfield

    Karen Hao

    A review in The Atlantic

    Telegraph

    The New York Times Book Review

    Peter Norvig

    At least five Nobel laureates

    Rolling Stone

    The New Yorker

    A Science editorial

    The Guardian

    Ray Kurzweil

    John Schulman

    A current pope

    Financial Times

    Bloomberg Businessweek

    Forbes

    A New Scientist editorial

    A current US Secretary of Treasury

    John Oliver

    IEEE Spectrum

    Vanity Fair

    roon

    Elon Musk

    Mustafa Suleyman

    A current UK prime minister

    Judea Pearl

    António Guterres

    Foreign Affairs

    Barack Obama

    A Scientific American editorial

    A Nature editorial

    The Washington Post

    Demis Hassabis

    Associated Press

    Any five current United States representatives

    The Wall Street Journal

    Anthropic

    Shane Legg

    Ilya Sutskever

    JD Vance

    Alexandr Wang

    Daron Acemoglu

    A high-ranking Chinese government official

    Reuters

    RFK Jr

    Ivanka Trump

    Narendra Modi

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Terence Tao

    CNN

    Any five current United States senators

    Peter Thiel

    Jimmy Fallon

    Mira Murati

    Richard Sutton

    A current Fed Chair

    Ursula von der Leyen

    OpenAI

    DeepMind

    Daniela Amodei

    Jensen Huang

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Joe Biden

    Dario Amodei

    Sam Altman

    Jeff Bezos

    Satya Nadella

    Greg Egan

    A current US Secretary of Energy

    Bill Clinton

    JK Rowling

    Noam Chomsky

    Fox News

    Chris Olah

    A current US Secretary of Commerce

    A current US Secretary of State

    Donald J. Trump

    Mr. Beast

    Vladimir Putin

    Tim Cook

    Kamala Harris

    King Charles

    Xi Jinping

    Taylor Swift

    Yann LeCun

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    90

    90

    84

    83

    81

    76

    76

    75

    72

    72

    68

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    66

    66

    62

    60

    58

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    54

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    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    3

    Will Ireland be invaded by the UK before 2030 in the event of a Sinn Fein Taoiseach in next elections

    May 11, 10:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM
    2.89%chance
    334645

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2902

    834

    Which of Zvi's favorite NYC restaurants and bakeries will close by 1 Feb 2028?

    Jan 2, 4:25 PMFeb 9, 4:59 AM
    111654

    OptionProbability

    Tortaria

    Hunan Bistro

    Joe's Pizza (14th + 3rd)

    Mighty Quinn's BBQ (13th and 7th)

    Hill Country

    Carlotto

    Dominic Ansel Workshop

    BLT Prime (74th + Lexington)

    Brooklyn Bagel & Coffee Company (25th + 8th)

    Thai Villa

    Bhatti Indian Grill

    Brindle Room

    Osteria Morini

    Il Buco Alimentari & Vineria

    Tao Downtown

    Strip House (44th + 5th)

    Keste Pizza

    Magnolia Bakery (Bleecker Street)

    Joe and Pat's NYC (10th + 1st)

    Bourke Street Bakery (28th + Madison)

    Prince Street Pizza

    Dominic Ansel Kitchen

    Au Za'atar

    Rezdora

    Da Umberto

    Casa Mono

    Xi'an's Famous Foods (15th and 8th)

    The Donut Pub (both locations must close)

    Dos Toros (two closest locations must close)

    Scarpetta

    Via Carota

    Fogo De Chao (53rd Street)

    The Halal Guys (14th + 2nd)

    Japonica

    Fiaschetteria "Pistoia" (both locations must close)

    Eataly (23rd Street + 6th Avenue)

    Naya (four closest locations must close)

    Katz's Delicatessen

    Shake Shack (OG in Madison Square Park)

    98

    98

    73

    52

    48

    46

    31

    30

    29

    29

    29

    29

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    28

    28

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    24

    21

    21

    21

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    18

    18

    16

    12

    Who's the smartest person alive?

    Mar 11, 10:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM
    221098

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Terrence Tao

    Brian T. Edwards

    Xi Jingping

    Marilyn vos Savant

    Christopher Langan

    Elon Musk

    Grigori Perelman

    @jim

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    Donald Trump

    Noam Chomsky

    48

    10

    9

    9

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    Who will come second in the 2025 Vuelta a Espana?

    Aug 1, 1:41 AMSep 14, 11:59 PM
    81010

    OptionProbability

    Joao Almeida

    Juan Ayuso

    Jonas Vingegaard

    Other

    Richard Carapaz

    Mikel Landa

    Egan Bernal

    Tom Pidcock

    Carlos Rodríguez

    Jai Hindley

    Felix Gall

    Tao Geoghegan Hart

    Derek Gee

    Enric Mas

    36

    27

    9

    8

    7

    3

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    Billionaire Stonks

    Mar 28, 12:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    11269

    OptionProbability

    Vitalik Buterin

    Elon Musk

    Jensen Huang

    Dustin Moskovitz

    Other

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Warren Buffett

    Bill Gates

    Lakshmi Mittal

    Alex Karp

    Masayoshi Son

    Tahir

    Alice Walton

    Lee Jae-yong

    Frank Wang Tao

    Jeff Bezos

    Larry Page

    Li Ka-shing

    Bernard Arnault

    Larry Ellison

    Michael Bloomberg

    12

    8

    8

    7

    6

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    Will Terence Tao publish a Math paper such that some result was solved by AI before 2028?

    May 28, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    41.97%chance
    9191

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    118

    85

    Will Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year?

    Oct 31, 5:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    78.89%chance
    10183

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    320

    164

    Which party will the first Taoiseach be from following the next Irish general election?

    May 24, 11:17 AMJan 31, 12:17 PM
    350

    OptionProbability

    Fine Gael

    Fianna Fáil

    Sinn Féin

    Other

    32

    29

    28

    11

    Greatest Philosophical Work of All Time

    Jul 23, 9:27 PMJul 24, 9:26 PM
    340

    OptionProbability

    Critique of Pure Reason by Immanuel Kant

    The World as Will and Representation by Arthur Schopenhauer

    The City of God Against The Pagans by St. Augustine

    Tractatus by Wittgenstein

    Ethics by Baruch Spinoza

    Philosophical Investigations by Ludwig Wittgenstein

    Tao Te Ching by Laozi

    66

    52

    48

    46

    44

    34

    34

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