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Top stories

Influencer Emilie Kiser Takes Blame in Son’s Fatal Pool Accident

Influencer Emilie Kiser Takes Blame in Son’s Fatal Pool Accident

Authors

15

11 months ago

Prediction markets for Trigg

Could a direct war between Israel and Iran trigger a global conflict?

Mar 16, 3:16 PMMar 16, 3:16 PM

18.33%chance

1612343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

47

SOAI#4: A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security

Oct 9, 11:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.99%chance

302059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1733

577

"Conditional AI pause" commitment triggers antitrust enforcement by EOY 2028?

Jul 14, 12:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22049

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google DeepMind

10

10

10

A French President will trigger Article 16 of the French Constitution (giving him exceptional powers) before 2030.

Jul 6, 12:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.8%chance

11831

OptionVotes

YES

NO

164

104

Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before 2031?

May 4, 1:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.56%chance

14651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

748

Will humans trigger a volcanic eruption by 2100?

Nov 11, 9:54 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

38.5%chance

10222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

333

246

Is a Forced Reset Trigger (FRT) a machine gun?

Dec 21, 4:36 AMJan 2, 4:30 AM

41.43%chance

449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external?

May 6, 11:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Week 7 of asking: Should polls trigger the question creation quest?

Dec 29, 5:48 PM

30

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