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Top stories

Influencer Emilie Kiser Takes Blame in Son’s Fatal Pool Accident

Influencer Emilie Kiser Takes Blame in Son’s Fatal Pool Accident

Authors

15

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Trigg

Could a direct war between Israel and Iran trigger a global conflict?

Mar 16, 3:16 PMMar 16, 3:16 PM

18.33%chance

1612343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

47

SOAI#4: A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security

Oct 9, 11:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.77%chance

312069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1743

574

"Conditional AI pause" commitment triggers antitrust enforcement by EOY 2028?

Jul 14, 12:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22049

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google DeepMind

10

10

10

A French President will trigger Article 16 of the French Constitution (giving him exceptional powers) before 2030.

Jul 6, 12:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.8%chance

11831

OptionVotes

YES

NO

164

104

Will Fable 5.1 still trigger safeguards all the time?

Aug 26, 6:07 PMSep 25, 6:06 PM

80.1%chance

12747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

999

Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before 2031?

May 4, 1:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.56%chance

14651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

748

Will humans trigger a volcanic eruption by 2100?

Nov 11, 9:54 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

38.5%chance

10222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

333

246

Is a Forced Reset Trigger (FRT) a machine gun?

Dec 21, 4:36 AMJan 2, 4:30 AM

41.43%chance

449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external?

May 6, 11:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Week 7 of asking: Should polls trigger the question creation quest?

Dec 29, 5:48 PM

30

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