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Prediction markets for Vanessa
Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?
Jun 11, 4:45 PMJun 18, 8:59 PM
3111948
OptionProbability
100
100
40
38
24
If AGI has an okay outcome, which researcher first publicised the agenda that was most responsible?
Jul 24, 7:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
287407
OptionProbability
60
5
5
5
5
4
4
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
95
94
92
91
90
90
89
88
88
88
87
86
84
84
83
83
83
82
82
81
81
79
79
78
78
78
78
78
78
76
76
75
75
74
73
72
72
72
70
69
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69
69
68
66
66
65
65
62
59
54
52
50
50
48
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41
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41
37
34
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34
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34
34
33
32
32
31
29
27
24
24
23
17
10
10
8
5
Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:15 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM
10.38%chance
224322
OptionVotes
2669
576
OptionVotes
4027
248
OptionProbability
47
28
6
5
4
2
2
2
2
2
OptionProbability
42
42
16
Will AI/GPT autogenerate concrete examples of infradistributions or inframeasures that fit Vanessa Kosoy defs?
Mar 27, 2:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
41.81%chance
221
OptionVotes
99
82
Will AGI be maximally impatient in trying to expand its causally-affectable portion of the universe?
Mar 26, 4:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
42.2%chance
220
OptionVotes
100
82