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Prediction markets for Vanessa
Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?
Jun 11, 4:45 PMJun 18, 8:59 PM
3111948
OptionProbability
100
100
40
38
24
If AGI has an okay outcome, which researcher first publicised the agenda that was most responsible?
Jul 24, 7:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
287407
OptionProbability
60
5
5
5
5
4
4
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
95
94
93
92
91
90
90
89
89
89
89
88
88
86
84
84
84
83
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82
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79
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70
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66
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62
59
52
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41
37
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34
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31
27
24
24
23
17
10
10
8
5
OptionVotes
4027
248
OptionProbability
36
27
8
7
6
4
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
95
4
0
Will AI/GPT autogenerate concrete examples of infradistributions or inframeasures that fit Vanessa Kosoy defs?
Mar 27, 2:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
41.81%chance
221
OptionVotes
99
82
Will AGI be maximally impatient in trying to expand its causally-affectable portion of the universe?
Mar 26, 4:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
42.2%chance
220
OptionVotes
100
82