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Prediction markets for Vanessa
Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?
Jun 11, 4:45 PMJun 18, 8:59 PM
3011898
OptionProbability
100
100
40
39
24
OptionProbability
55
54
46
31
31
30
30
26
24
22
21
18
17
17
16
15
15
14
14
8
7
6
If AGI has an okay outcome, which researcher first publicised the agenda that was most responsible?
Jul 24, 7:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
236702
OptionProbability
35
16
10
6
5
5
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:15 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM
10.29%chance
214300
OptionVotes
2687
574
OptionProbability
94
92
91
90
89
88
88
88
87
86
85
85
84
83
83
83
82
82
81
81
79
79
78
78
78
78
76
76
76
75
75
74
73
72
72
70
69
69
69
69
66
66
66
65
65
62
59
59
59
54
54
53
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
46
41
41
41
41
40
38
34
34
34
34
34
32
27
19
17
16
OptionVotes
3777
265
OptionVotes
1755
570
OptionProbability
53
10
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
Will AI/GPT autogenerate concrete examples of infradistributions or inframeasures that fit Vanessa Kosoy defs?
Mar 27, 2:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
41.81%chance
221
OptionVotes
99
82
Will AGI be maximally impatient in trying to expand its causally-affectable portion of the universe?
Mar 26, 4:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
42.2%chance
220
OptionVotes
100
82