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Victoria Villarruel News

    Prediction markets for Victoria Villarruel

    OptionProbability

    He leaves Argentina during his first term

    He travels to Chile during his first term

    He travels to Brazil during his first term

    He is photographed with Elon Musk

    A photo of him with Trump is released

    A photo of Milei with Biden is released

    His sister Karina holds an official public governmental position

    Will he publicly shake hands with Lula?

    Will Elon Musk post Milei's picture, real or meme form, as long as he's clearly identifiable?

    Heritage.org economic freedom score will be at or above the world average [Argentina 51.0, world 59.3 in 2023]

    Argentina will have improved its "corruption perceptions index" ranking [96th]; their score in 2023 was 38, higher score is better

    He comes to the US and meets the US president in the white house and a picture is released

    His salary as president is legislatively raised or lowered

    Heritage.org economic freedom score will be 60 or above [51 in 2023]

    Argentina will be at 63rd or better place in the good country index [63rd in 2023]

    Argentina will be at or better than its 2023 US news "best country" rating of 39

    Will Pope Francis or a new Pope visit?

    Annualized inflation rate relative to 2023 will be <30%

    According to amnesty international, the poverty rate will go down [36.5% in 2022]

    There are serious news reports that he is discussing working with Elon Musk on a major project such as a new city, or a Tesla factory, or a rocket base, etc.

    He wins reelection to a 2nd term

    A sitting US President visits Argentina and is photographed with him

    The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16k USD [13700 in 2023]

    The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16000 USD [13700 in 2023]

    LLM Q2: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of term, when asked from the POV of various international media outlets, what average rating will they give him?

    Argentina will have improved its "Sustainable Development Report" of 51st place

    Elon says the phrase or something similar, as a slogan or statement, or wears something with "VVLC", "Vive la libertad carajo" in english or spanish

    He travels to Bolivia

    LLM Q1: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of his term rate his performance at >50%?

    Argentina's population increases by more than 1%/year annualized til end of first term [historically, there has been approx 0.6% annual increase in the last 4 years]

    US Military gains any kind of base for at least 10 active duty military personnel within Argentina

    Argentina will finish in the top 4 in the 2026 world cup

    Victoria Villarruel leaves government and does not hold the office of vice president before end of term

    He leads Argentina to significantly begin cooperation with SpaceX

    Milei is revealed to not really be a Vegan (or just stops being Vegan)

    He sells land to a non-argentinian individual or corporation with some promises of a level of sovereignty above what is normal

    Will he ever be TIME person of the year?

    He marries during his first term

    Argentina accepts some kind of Cryptocurrency for payment of taxes or gov't fees

    He goes incommunicado for at least a week

    Will the organ trade be legalized? (significantly legalized compared to the rest of S.America suffices)

    He officially converts to Judaism

    He significantly changes his hairstyle during his first term

    He is impeached or removed in a process which is retroactively considered legal for at least a week

    Argentina will finish in the top 2 in the 2026 world cup

    He successfully mediates the border dispute with Chile and completely solves it

    Argentina's population ever decreases year over year during the first term

    He leaves office early from his first term, i.e. not completing the usual 4 years

    There is an assassination attempt resulting in shots fired

    He goes out of office for physical health-related reasons [independent health-related only; assassination, disappearance, quitting, or psychological reasons don't count]

    The official borders of Argentina change during his term of office

    He successfully dollarizes Argentina [i.e. most people use dollars most of the time]

    Will at any time, the US have a travel advisory against Argentina at level 3 or 4 or higher? (level 1 now)

    Argentina will win the 2026 world cup

    He publicly resigns [whether real or coerced]

    The Argentine peso will have been officially deprecated and not in legal use

    Argentina will declare war

    He is jailed, emprisoned, or held in state control during what was his original planned term of office

    He travels to Russia during his first term

    Will he abolish the central bank of Argentina?

    He changes the law such that he retains power longer than the usual 4 years without a new election

    He is in a serious car or motorcycle crash

    There is a military action in the Falklands/Malvinas which results in the death of at least 2 soldiers from any side

    He has a child during his first term

    He is excommunicated by the catholic church

    He gets banned from Twitter [even momentarily]

    He is in a plane (or helicopter) crash

    He passes away during his first term before completion

    Argentina effectively controls the Falklands/Malvinas or part of them, for at least a week

    Will Argentina join BRICS?

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