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Top stories

Las Vegas Uber Driver Faces DUI Charge in Pedestrian’s Downtown Death

Las Vegas Uber Driver Faces DUI Charge in Pedestrian’s Downtown Death

Authors

14

2 days ago

Prediction markets for Vo

What proportion of John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older will identify as LGBTQ+?

Jun 18, 1:58 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.58%chance

4965814

OptionVotes

NO

YES

972

970

Highest volume prediction market for 2028 US prez election?

Feb 20, 12:06 AMNov 11, 7:59 AM

4643652

OptionProbability

Polymarket

Kalshi

IB / ForecastEx

Other

DraftKings or FanDuel

Betfair

Manifold

PredictIt

52

27

10

7

2

1

1

1

Will Volodomyr Zelenskyy be in power at the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war?

Nov 11, 2:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.42%chance

15222977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

1285

Will Vladimir Putin stop being president of Russia before Volodymyr Zelensky stops being president of Ukraine?

Aug 29, 8:41 PMOct 7, 8:59 PM

24.44%chance

14217223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2734

1516

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be reelected president of Ukraine?

Jan 16, 5:53 PMNov 30, 4:59 AM

19.43%chance

16414214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2060

123

Will Elon Musk vote for the Republican party in 2028?

Nov 8, 7:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.74%chance

346678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1244

804

Will AI be among the top 5 most important issues for voters in the lead up to the 2028 election?

Feb 22, 12:32 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

65.8%chance

464001

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1386

672

Will Trump kill or neuter Vox or The Atlantic during his term?

Jan 16, 5:09 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

13.59%chance

143292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2522

397

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

44.45%chance

141602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10441

9624

Will either of Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2024 elections?

Apr 10, 5:37 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

23.1%chance

551530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1668

1420

If Greenland holds an independence referendum in 2025, will it vote for independence?

Jan 27, 8:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

14965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will any US Presidential candidate get more than 97% of the electoral vote by 2100?

Oct 11, 6:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.37%chance

12826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

988

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