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Prediction markets for Welle
Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?
Oct 25, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
60.7%chance
878914
OptionVotes
1136
739
By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.
Jan 5, 10:59 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM
88.5%chance
248391
OptionVotes
2749
367
By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.
Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM
67.57%chance
748052
OptionVotes
1146
933
EOY 2025: Will open LLMs perform at least as well as 50 Elo below closed-source LLMs on coding?
Jul 27, 10:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
72.08%chance
246791
OptionVotes
1607
622
Will Roon's Tweet about various great minds discussing flops age well by 2027?
Dec 18, 1:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
46.2%chance
321275
OptionVotes
1247
507
By 2030 will there be a well accepted theory of the causes of Alzheimer's?
Nov 23, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
33.49%chance
221269
OptionVotes
1006
902
By 2028, AI can translate a text written in a newly discovered language into English as well as a team of human experts
Jan 5, 10:41 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM
23.44%chance
221163
OptionVotes
1227
889
Will there be a well accepted formal definition of value alignment for AI by 2030?
Oct 4, 4:12 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
24.72%chance
23709
OptionVotes
1179
913
If we try stratospheric aerosol injection before 2030, will it go well?
Sep 30, 6:51 PMApr 4, 6:59 AM
68.15%chance
14493
OptionVotes
1054
965
If I update my Manifold FAQ, will I think it was time well spent a month later?
Nov 18, 5:05 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
50.26%chance
19312
OptionVotes
1053
939
If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?
Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
31.49%chance
12146
OptionVotes
1054
966
Will "You’re probably overestimating how well you u..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Sep 30, 10:04 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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