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Prediction markets for Wi
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM
93.02%chance
8657703802
OptionVotes
18686
8824
OptionVotes
3727
1788
OptionProbability
27
22
9
5
4
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
29.63%chance
793419120
OptionVotes
25141
17457
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
60.5%chance
455372687
OptionVotes
3723
1531
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Jul 18, 4:24 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM
27.02%chance
223346268
OptionVotes
136861
82265
OptionVotes
4175
1332
OptionProbability
26
24
9
6
4
4
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will my ex partner and I get back together within 3 years?
Aug 16, 1:44 AMJun 17, 6:59 AM
69.58%chance
189139847
OptionVotes
165099
32367
Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?
Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
69101750
OptionProbability
64
20
14
1
1
1
🇧🇷 2026: winner is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado vence
Sep 24, 9:28 AMJan 16, 7:59 PM
45.03%chance
4711308
OptionVotes
43273
34126
Will I Be Convinced Some People Feel Wi-Fi from 5+ Meters Away?
Jun 6, 1:20 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM
6.89%chance
141083
OptionVotes
1954
869