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Top stories

Apple TV+ Sets Aug. 6 Debut for ‘Platonic’ Season 2

Apple TV+ Sets Aug. 6 Debut for ‘Platonic’ Season 2

Authors

12

7 days ago

Prediction markets for Will

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.03%chance

38629966000

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10838

10531

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

93.02%chance

8657703802

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18686

8824

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.8%chance

24021729741

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9021

2682

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

56.67%chance

18391290856

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4963

3791

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

Jan 22, 11:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.28%chance

268530402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24349

6056

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54%chance

602394096

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16776

7995

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jul 18, 4:24 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

27.02%chance

223346268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136861

82265

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

31.05%chance

165276698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148701

67433

Will Trump finish his second term?

Dec 5, 9:25 PMJan 22, 5:59 AM

77.26%chance

198241270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102453

88988

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

50%chance

217172957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1300

940

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

Jan 22, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.35%chance

3947145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118404

88423

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

56.8%chance

5626924

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114667

87209

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