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Yi He News

    Prediction markets for Yi He

    Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?

    Jun 22, 6:43 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    11822592

    OptionProbability

    Gemini - Google

    GPT - OpenAI

    Claude - Anthropic

    Grok - xAI

    Llama - Meta

    Qwen - Alibaba

    Other

    SenseNova - SenseTime

    Mistral AI - Mistral

    Sakana AI - Sakana

    Yi - 01.AI

    40

    19

    12

    10

    9

    4

    4

    1

    0

    0

    0

    Who will be the next world number 1 in chess?

    Jan 2, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    496453

    OptionProbability

    Dommaraju Gukesh

    Other

    Fabiano Caruana

    Arjun Erigaisi

    Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa

    Hikaru Nakamura

    Nodirbek Abdusattorov

    Alireza Firouzja

    Wei Yi

    Ding Liren

    Vincent Keymer

    31

    18

    13

    11

    8

    6

    6

    5

    2

    1

    0

    Who will be the next General Secretary of China after Xi Jinping?

    Feb 15, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    325948

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Li Qiang (Premier, 2nd rank PSC member)

    Ding Xuexiang (Vice Premier, 6th rank PSC member)

    Chen Jining (Party Secretary of Shanghai)

    Zhang Youxia (Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission)

    Wang Yang (former Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference)

    [Nobody] (Xi Jinping does not have a successor as General Secretary)

    Cai Qi (5th rank PSC member, first-ranked of Secretariat)

    Li Xi (7th rank PSC member, Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection)

    Wang Yi (Foreign Minister)

    Wang Huning (tourist, political theorist, and 4th rank PSC member)

    Chen Min'er (Party Secretary of Tianjin)

    Yuan Jiajun (Party Secretary of Chongqing)

    Yin Li (Party Secretary of Beijing)

    Li Shulei (Head of Party Publicity)

    Zhao Leji (3rd rank PSC member, chairman of NPC Standing Committee)

    Chen Wenqing (Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission)

    29

    15

    12

    12

    10

    10

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Who will be World Chess Champion at the end of the 2020s?

    Oct 2, 5:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    264110

    OptionProbability

    Gukesh Dommaraju

    Other

    Wei Yi

    Arjun Erigaisi

    Hikaru Nakamura

    Nodirbek Abdusattorov

    Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu

    Fabiano Caruana

    Magnus Carlsen

    Alireza Firouzja

    Ding Liren

    Ian Nepomniachtchi

    26

    18

    10

    9

    8

    7

    6

    5

    4

    4

    1

    1

    Which chess prodigy will have the highest Elo rating at the end of 2025?

    Jan 7, 10:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    293800

    OptionProbability

    Gukesh D

    Praggnanandhaa R

    Arjun Erigaisi

    Nodirbek Abdusattorov

    Alireza Firouzja

    Wei Yi

    Vincent Keymer

    Hans Niemann

    29

    27

    18

    16

    5

    4

    1

    1

    Who will be a world chess champion before 2050?

    Jan 25, 7:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    333150

    OptionProbability

    Dommaraju Gukesh

    Arjun Erigaisi

    R Praggnanandhaa

    Nodirbek Abdusattorov

    Vincent Keymer

    Fabiano Caruana

    Ian Nepomniachtchi

    Alireza Firouzja

    Abhimanyu Mishra

    Parham Maghsoodloo

    Hikaru Nakamura

    Murzin, Volodar

    Leon Mendonca

    Wesley So

    Anish Giri

    Wei Yi

    Raunak Sadhwani

    any trans female

    Sergey Karjakin

    any cis female

    Hans Niemann

    100

    36

    34

    32

    30

    29

    29

    28

    21

    19

    18

    18

    17

    15

    14

    13

    12

    10

    5

    5

    3

    Who will win the 2026 Chess Candidates Tournament?

    May 8, 3:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    263095

    OptionProbability

    Fabiano Caruana

    Praggnanandhaa R

    Hikaru Nakamura

    Ian Nepomniachtchi

    Nodirbek Abdusattorov

    Arjun Erigaisi

    Alireza Firouzja

    Magnus Carlsen

    Gukesh D

    Wei Yi

    Other

    Ding Liren

    Wesley So

    Viswanathan Anand

    Sergey Karjakin

    Leinier Dominguez Perez

    Anish Giri

    Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

    Jan-Krzysztof Duda

    Parham Maghsoodloo

    Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

    Quang Liem Le

    Levon Aronian

    Veselin Topalov

    Teimour Radjabov

    Vidit Santosh Gujrathi

    Vincent Keymer

    Yu Yangyi

    Alexander Grischuk

    Richard Rapport

    Vladislav Artemiev

    Alexey Sarana

    Daniil Dubov

    Wang Hao

    M. Amin Tabatabaei

    N/A (e.g. tournament cancelled)

    21

    14

    12

    7

    7

    7

    5

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

    May 8, 3:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    282141

    OptionProbability

    Gukesh D

    Fabiano Caruana

    Praggnanandhaa R

    Hikaru Nakamura

    Nodirbek Abdusattorov

    Arjun Erigaisi

    Ian Nepomniachtchi

    Ding Liren

    Magnus Carlsen

    Wei Yi

    Anish Giri

    Alireza Firouzja

    Daniil Dubov

    Other

    Wesley So

    Viswanathan Anand

    Sergey Karjakin

    Leinier Dominguez Perez

    Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

    Jan-Krzysztof Duda

    Parham Maghsoodloo

    Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

    Quang Liem Le

    Levon Aronian

    Veselin Topalov

    Teimour Radjabov

    Vidit Santosh Gujrathi

    Vincent Keymer

    Yu Yangyi

    Alexander Grischuk

    Richard Rapport

    Vladislav Artemiev

    Alexey Sarana

    Wang Hao

    M. Amin Tabatabaei

    N/A (e.g. tournament cancelled)

    50

    9

    7

    6

    4

    4

    3

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Who will be the first chess player to reach 3000 FIDE rating?

    Apr 14, 11:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    111599

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Magnus Carlsen

    Fabiano Caruana

    DONT BET - No one (at least by market close)

    Alireza Firouzja

    Diren Ling

    Yagiz Kaan Erdogmus

    Yi Wei

    89

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    Who will win FIDE Circuit 2025?

    Jan 1, 9:49 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    131458

    OptionProbability

    Praggnanandhaa R

    Nodirbek Abdusattorov

    Arjun Erigaisi

    Chithambaram Aravindh

    Other

    Wei Yi

    Alireza Firouzja

    Magnus Carlsen

    Ian Nepomniachtchi

    Hans Moke Niemann

    Ding Liren

    40

    22

    9

    6

    6

    4

    4

    2

    2

    2

    2

    Chess Players Stock Market (Pick your favorite professional players)

    Jan 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    12609

    OptionProbability

    Hikaru Nakamura

    Magnus Carlsen

    D Gukesh

    Vincent Kaymer

    Anish Giri

    Viswanathan Anand

    Vidit Gujrathi

    Fabiano Caruana

    Ding Liren

    Alireza Firouzja

    Wesley So

    R Praggnanandhaa

    Jan-Krzysztof Duda

    Ian Nepomniachtchi

    Leinier Dominguez Perez

    Sergey Karjakin

    Parham Maghsoodloo

    Wei Yi

    Arjun Erigaisi

    Maxime Vachier-Legrave

    Alexander Grischuk

    Lê Quang Liêm

    Nodirbek Abdusattorov

    Veselin Topalov

    Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

    Other

    26

    14

    14

    7

    6

    6

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Which Players Will Be 2800 FIDE in 2025?

    Dec 31, 6:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    8415

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Gukesh D

    Nodirbek Abdusattorov

    Praggnanandhaa R

    Wei Yi

    Alireza Firouzja

    Ian Nepomniachtchi

    Hans Niemann

    Vincent Keymer

    Garry Kasparov

    100

    37

    24

    22

    12

    10

    6

    4

    3

    2