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Prediction markets for Yu
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM
93%chance
8707791171
OptionVotes
18636
8827
OptionVotes
14061
535
If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)
Jul 2, 2:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
21.42%chance
264484823
OptionVotes
10407
7511
Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?
May 14, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
61.9%chance
489223643
OptionVotes
4133
3526
OptionProbability
25
21
12
7
7
7
7
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?
Feb 26, 6:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.12%chance
17366341
OptionVotes
8877
3516
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
51%chance
20846904
OptionVotes
2654
983
Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?
Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
27.86%chance
4515871
OptionVotes
15703
6520
OptionProbability
21
14
12
7
7
7
5
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Will Jose Ricon, Ben Yu, Claire Wang, Sigil Wen, ishaan chugh, Asher, and Euan Ong all go penguin-watching together?
Sep 19, 1:05 AMSep 26, 3:59 AM
22.03%chance
390
OptionVotes
188
53
Will there be a Yu Gi Oh collaboration with Fortnite before the end of 2027?
Mar 18, 2:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
30.42%chance
372
OptionVotes
230
114
Will janus/repligate, Rona Wang, Razib Khan, Ava Huang, Stephen Hsu, and Ben Yu ALL traverse the Oregon Trail by 2090?
Dec 2, 1:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
47.56%chance
15
OptionVotes
105
95
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