Bank of Japan Rate-Hike Odds Rise to 80% with Yen Gains; 0.75% Target Rate and September Pause Expected

Market expectations for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise its main interest rate have increased sharply to around 80% within the year, driven by progress in US-China tariff reductions. The easing of US tariff measures has also contributed to a stronger yen and reduced concerns over trade tensions. However, recent polls indicate some divergence among economists, with 52% anticipating the BoJ will raise its main interest rate to 0.75% or higher by year-end, while others expect a pause in rate hikes through September due to ongoing tariff uncertainties.