Polls Show LDP-Komeito Majority in Doubt as Early Voting Slows

Early opinion surveys by major Japanese media outlets indicate Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party is struggling at the outset of the 20 July House of Councillors election. Polls by Mainichi, Sankei–FNN and JNN show LDP candidates leading in only nine of the 32 single-member constituencies, less than half the 28 districts the party won in the previous upper-house contest in 2022. Seat projections compiled by Asahi Shimbun suggest the LDP could capture 32–46 of the 125 seats at stake, while junior coalition partner Komeito is seen winning 4–10. That range would leave the ruling bloc short of the roughly 50 seats it needs to retain a majority in the 248-seat chamber, heightening the possibility that opposition parties—including the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Sanseito and the Democratic Party for the People—gain ground. Voter engagement so far appears muted. The Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry said 2,022,992 people cast ballots between 4 and 6 July, representing 1.94 % of eligible voters and 0.13 percentage point below the comparable stage of the 2022 contest. Advance voting runs through 19 July, leaving parties on all sides seeking to mobilise the roughly 40–50 % of respondents who remain undecided in early surveys.