
Historical analysis of Federal Reserve rate cuts reveals mixed impacts on the S&P 500. Since 1970, there have been 18 rate-cutting cycles, with 11 of those not leading to a recession. In such cases, the S&P 500 averaged a 12-month return of 11%. Conversely, the 7 cycles that did lead to a recession saw an average return of only 7%. Market behavior following rate cuts has varied; in previous cycles during bullish markets, rate cuts have sometimes signaled economic trouble, leading to significant market declines, as seen in 2001 and 2007, when the S&P 500 fell by 51% and 58%, respectively. The analysis indicates that while rate cuts can be perceived as bullish, they may also indicate underlying economic issues, complicating their interpretation for investors.
Is the first rate cut the sweetest? Not always. @MichaelSantoli breaks down S&P 500 returns after the start of a Fed easing cycle. https://t.co/ibfE0fpa9X
Rate cuts don't have to precede a crisis or crash the stock market. Since 1970: 7/18 cut cycles did NOT end in recession. The S&P 500 average 12-month return? 11% (vs. 11/18 cut cycles that did end in recession, w/ an S&P 500 average 12-month return of 7%) https://t.co/GUKTM76Rir
Great data from @callieabost of @RitholtzWealth *18 Fed cutting cycles since 1970 *11 "desperation"/ $SPX rises 7% next 12months *8 celebratory/ $SPX rises 11% next 12 months @CNBCWEX https://t.co/XuswDxbRSq
