Mexican oil production is declining sharply, reaching levels not seen since the late 1970s prior to the development of the Cantarell oil field. This downturn poses challenges for U.S. refiners who rely heavily on Mexican heavy crude, especially as Mexico's exports have fallen significantly. In June 2025, Pemex, Mexico's state oil company, exported 39% less crude oil year-over-year, marking the lowest export levels in decades at 458,103 barrels per day. Despite the drop in exports, Pemex's Olmeca refinery increased fuel production by 61.48% in June compared to May, processing 172,000 barrels per day. The decline in Mexican crude exports, combined with Pemex's financial difficulties, is tightening supply for U.S. refiners and contributing to rising oil prices.