The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on 12 August, projects that U.S. crude oil production will decline in 2026, marking the first annual drop since 2021. The agency now expects output to average 13.28 million barrels a day in 2026, trimming its July projection of 13.37 million. Production is still forecast to reach a record 13.41 million barrels a day next year before lower prices and subdued drilling push volumes lower. U.S. rig counts remain near four-year lows despite efficiency gains in shale fields. EIA analysts also cut their price deck, forecasting Brent crude to slip to about $50 a barrel by early 2026. Cheaper crude is seen feeding through to the pump, with the average U.S. retail gasoline price projected to retreat to $2.90 a gallon, the lowest since 2021. The revision brings the government outlook closer to OPEC’s latest assessment, which foresees U.S. shale production contracting by roughly 100,000 barrels a day in 2026 as producers maintain capital discipline and drilling momentum slows.