Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project pared back its 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on 9 July, projecting 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The update covers the full season through 30 November and incorporates the three storms already observed. The new totals are one storm, one hurricane and one major hurricane fewer than CSU’s June forecast, but they remain slightly above the 30-year seasonal averages of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The team also trimmed its Accumulated Cyclone Energy estimate to 145, down from 165 in June yet still above the long-term mean of 123. Researchers attributed the downward adjustment mainly to stronger-than-average vertical wind shear over the Caribbean, a condition that typically suppresses storm development. That drag is expected to ease in early August, while unusually warm Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and an anticipated neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation phase continue to favour above-normal activity. Despite the moderation, CSU assigns a 48 % probability of at least one major hurricane striking the U.S. this year and places Florida at a 90 % chance of experiencing a named storm within 50 miles. Scientists cautioned that even an average season can produce destructive landfalls and urged coastal residents to maintain preparations.