Meteorologists are monitoring a developing weather system currently over Florida, with the potential to move westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery shows deeper convection bursts off the southeast coast of Florida, accompanied by a weak spin to the northeast. Sea surface temperatures in the upper Gulf remain above normal, creating conditions that could support tropical development. Forecast models present mixed scenarios: the European (EURO) ensembles indicate almost no chance of development in the Gulf this week, while the Global Forecast System (GFS) ensembles suggest possible formation, with the ICON model even projecting a hurricane. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is expected to update the system's development probability to around 30%, expanding the area of interest to include parts of the Atlantic. Overall, the system is anticipated to move westward across northern Florida and the Gulf, potentially affecting the Texas coast later in the week. Weather experts advise continued observation as conditions evolve.
New NHC update soon. Guessing bump to 30% with circle stretched to include some of the Atlantic again. And I love being able to track the tropics in Julie's car. EURO AI and it's ensembles little more support in the Gulf later week. https://t.co/Hk3pbO7x8H https://t.co/5DFtuTgXv4
Latest HRRR showing Monday afternoon/evening radar here. Some spinnage off the east coast with some rain/storms spinning down and around through the state. Interesting couple days ahead Florida. https://t.co/Hk3pbO7x8H https://t.co/UJXJKnfTzG
We continue to keep an eye on the potential for tropical cyclone formation as the clusters of storms are over Florida. This area will move west out over the open Gulf where sea temps are very warm. Current models vary on different scenarios on how this could go but its too early https://t.co/wRrJQrREn5