
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) has remained above its 125-year trendline for two months, drawing comparisons to its 90% collapse in 1929. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has shown mixed signals. Despite a 1% decline and five consecutive days where decliners outnumbered advancers, new highs continue to outpace new lows, keeping the Fear or Strength Model positive. The S&P 500 is currently up 15.4% during the 'Sell in May' period, one of the best returns ever. Historically, when the index gains more than 10% during this period, the next six months tend to be higher 10 out of 11 times, with an average increase of 13.2%. Additionally, the S&P index has outperformed signals from global assets correlated to risk sentiment by 4.2% over the last 20 days. Cross-asset models indicate a modest 0.10% gain for the S&P at the New York Open, with futures up 0.51% since the prior close.







Over the last 20 days, we have generally seen the S&P index outperform the signals from global assets correlated to risk sentiment. The S&P has outperformed the model by +4.16% cumulatively during the period. https://t.co/o7PlXnnSOp
2 Hours ahead of the NY Open, our cross-asset model indicates a +0.08% gain for the S&P (while futures are up +0.51% since prior close). The signal from Global Equities is most bullish (+0.15%), while the signal from Commodities is least bullish (-0.13%). https://t.co/mHfIatn4Aj
Between Nov 2016-Jan 2018 the $SPX went up 14 of 15 months before suffering a swift 12% peak to trough decline in Feb 2018. Today, the $SPX is up 11 of 12 months. VERY likely we get green months in Nov and Dec cause you know Santa Claus rally is real. Then they will start the…