European economic data released on November 22 showed a significant slowdown in activity, raising expectations of substantial monetary easing from the European Central Bank (ECB) and triggering a sharp fall in the Euro to its lowest level since 2022 against the US Dollar. The Eurozone composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a key gauge of economic health, dropped to 48.1 in November from 50 in October, indicating a contraction in business activity. The decline was led by France, where the manufacturing PMI fell to 43.2 and the services PMI declined to 45.7, signaling the fastest pace of contraction since January. In Germany, the PMI data confirmed that the economy is stagnating, with the composite PMI falling to 47.3, the lowest in nine months. European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel remarked that the PMI data confirm that Germany is stagnating and that the start of next year will be complicated. Additionally, Germany's third-quarter GDP growth was revised down to 0.1% quarter-on-quarter from an initial estimate of 0.2%, pointing to weaker-than-expected economic performance in Europe's largest economy. Traders reacted by boosting bets on ECB rate cuts, pricing in a 50 basis point cut in December and total cuts of 150 basis points by 2025. The Euro fell by over 1% against the US Dollar, reaching levels not seen since 2022, and the Euro 5-year, 5-year inflation swap rate fell to 2% for the first time since 2022. The Euro is currently posting the worst spot returns among major currencies since late October.
🚨🇪🇺EUROPE'S ECONOMIC TURBULENCE: WHAT'S GOING ON? Europe’s economy just hit a speed bump—business activity fell in November, dragging the euro to its weakest value since 2022. Political chaos in Germany and France, paired with concerns over possible U.S. trade tariff… https://t.co/ETJPJwX0uf
Deutsche Bank sees a 25bp cut in December but says it's 'a close call' https://t.co/K2p4RLvKRQ https://t.co/8ps91OoIXq
La debilidad económica de la zona euro se agrava y alimenta las expectativas de recortes de tipos. El sector servicios, que hasta el momento había servido para mantener a flote la actividad empresarial, entra en contracción y asesta un duro golpe al PMI (índice de expectativas de…