U.S. equity markets advanced strongly during the week ending May 3, 2025, with the S&P 500 Index (SPX) reaching the 5700 level and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES_F) rallying from a failed breakdown at 5628. The rally was supported by technical triggers at 5628 and 5650, with targets of 5672, 5698, 5711, and 5720 all being met. ES_F recorded nine consecutive green days, and SPX was up 1,312 points in 2025. Options activity was dominated by zero days to expiry (0DTE) contracts, which accounted for approximately 60% of total S&P 500 options volume, a new all-time high. Heavy 0DTE call volume was concentrated at the 5700 strike, with call resistance noted at 5650. The options market showed elevated short-dated implied volatility (IV), with SPY front-end puts trading at IVs above 200%. The SPX put/call ratio stood at 1.32. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, declined from above 24 to as low as 22 during the week and was 61.75% below its April 7 intraday high of 60.13. The 1-day VIX reached 27.52, implying a 1.7% SPX move, and the VVIX fell below 100. Despite the decline, volatility remained relatively elevated compared to recent averages. Dealer positioning and gamma exposure (GEX) influenced trading, with SPX net GEX flipping sharply positive to +254 million, indicating dealer support as gamma flows stabilized. The three-month VIX curve remained inverted by 1.5 points. Credit markets showed mixed signals, as high-yield corporate bond yields rose while investment-grade credit spreads did not fully align with equity volatility trends. Some analysts noted that if volatility finishes flat after breaking key moving averages, it could signal the potential for a market selloff similar to March 25. Looking ahead, traders are monitoring whether buyers can sustain the recent move, with key ES_F support levels identified at 5698 and 5672.
Keeping a close eye on volatility on Monday. Both $VIX futures and 3 month VIX futures broke the 50 day moving average on Friday. If volatility finishes the day flat that's a huge warning sign that a market selloff is coming, similar to what happened on March 25. https://t.co/h0XB1d4v7J https://t.co/8OEGsk4DDb
Interesting, yield on high yield corporate bonds rose last week and $VIX began rounding. Are they sniffing out another volatility wave coming? https://t.co/dEXoSzFrWM https://t.co/izVTSoaVTJ
Interesting how buyers showed up in the same spotâĻ 2022: â1,327 points 2025 (so far): â1,312 points $SPX https://t.co/eZabwQ8Idh