As of early August 2025, the S&P 500 index has been trading near all-time highs, but market breadth indicators show weakening underlying momentum. On August 5, advancers accounted for 49.7% of stocks, down from 80.4% earlier, with about half of the S&P 500 constituents falling below their 50-day simple moving average (SMA), despite the index itself remaining approximately 3% above that level. By August 7, advancers further declined to 44%, and only 46.7% of stocks were above their 20-day SMA, signaling a neutral breadth trend and suggesting the rally was losing steam. Technical indicators such as MACD breadth have been trending lower, and less than 60% of S&P 500 stocks were above their 200-day moving average as of August 9. Despite these signs of deteriorating breadth, the S&P 500 has maintained strength, with the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) making new highs and call-to-action traders holding maximum long positions in E-mini S&P and Nasdaq futures. Sector performance showed staples surging recently, which has been noted as a potential cautionary signal. Seasonal factors remain neutral to slightly negative, but momentum and options data for the Nasdaq suggest continued stability amid broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
Although the $SPX 5-wave advance suggested more time correcting or a deeper pullback, confidence in further downside has dropped with $NDX already making a new high and $SPX likely to follow this week. The bullish divergence at the Aug 1 low may now serve as the swing point for https://t.co/stiH3M1GsK
Strong momentum and option scores for NDX suggest continued stability, even amid macro noise. Seasonal factors are neutral to slightly negative, putting the focus on present signals over historical trends. https://t.co/pZK8zZ47dP
CTAs max long E-mini S&P (+2.38%) & Nasdaq (+2.95%), both at top percentiles. Dollar Index deep short (-1.55%), Euro & CHF longs near lows. Gold steady; commodities & bonds mixed. https://t.co/Gj1FgoQDCQ