The S&P 500 has risen more than 20% from its low six weeks ago, marking one of the few instances of such rapid gains in recent decades, comparable to April 2020, November 1998, and November 1974. The index closed at 5,958.38 on May 16, 2025, up 41.45 points or 0.70%, with trading volume reaching 2.891 billion shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also gained 331.99 points, or 0.78%, on the same day. The market has experienced a fifth consecutive day of gains, with US futures rising and the S&P 500 approaching the 6,000 level. Volatility measures have declined, with the VIX index falling below 18, reaching a multi-week low of 17.30 and potentially moving toward 16. Implied volatility (IV) for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and QQQ options has compressed, reflecting reduced short-term risk, although downside put skew remains elevated as traders continue to hedge against left-tail risks. Call skew has eased, indicating less fear of rapid upside moves. The options market shows a defensive put/call open interest ratio of 1.84 for SPY, with implied volatility at 14.29%, well below historical volatility of 45.17%, suggesting volatility compression. Positive gamma and high gamma exposure in stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) indicate dampened volatility but rising positioning heat. Nvidia's gamma has increased to $1.2 billion (+32%) as its price approaches resistance at $136, while Tesla's gamma rose to $373.8 million (+28%) with strong call dominance near the $350-$355 resistance zone. Market breadth is strong, with nearly 78% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average, the highest since October 2024. However, technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exceeding 70 and Z-Score above 2 suggest the S&P 500 is overbought, increasing the probability of a pullback. Momentum remains strong but warrants caution due to potential short-term overheating, with key support levels identified at 5,450 and 5,300. Options sentiment has turned more bullish, with the Option Score rising from 0 to 5, reflecting increased conviction among traders. Despite the rally, implied volatility remains elevated in short-dated options, especially in QQQ and TSLA, indicating market participants are bracing for potential near-term volatility spikes.
The number of stocks with RSI > 70 is spiking across multiple timeframes (5d & 14d), and many names are pushing above upper Bollinger Bands. Momentum is hot, but historically these levels signal caution for short-term overheating. Monitor closely for reversal setups. https://t.co/0jXIzNvR9a
🚀 Market breadth is surging: 78% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day moving average. Last time we saw this level was October 2024... https://t.co/9muAeQTcXH
$TSLA volatility surface (May 16 EOD) Skew still steep—higher IV priced into deep OTM puts & calls. Short-dated IV term structure shows elevated near-term premiums, while long-dated vol remains compressed. Options market pricing in big moves, but direction still unclear. https://t.co/HjmapZJNAz