The traditional market adage 'Sell in May and go away' is drawing renewed attention as U.S. stocks experience volatility. This saying, backed by decades of historical data, suggests that investing in the S&P 500 from May to October typically yields lower returns compared to the November to April period. According to Bespoke Investment Group, a fund tracking the S&P 500 since 1993 returned 171% during May to October, significantly less than the 731% gain during November to April. This year, the S&P 500 has already seen a 12% recovery from its monthly lows but remains down 5.5% year-to-date. Analysts like Tyler Richey from Sevens Report Research argue that the risks are skewed towards another significant decline in the coming month, favoring the 'May-Sellers' strategy. A longer-term analysis from the Stock Trader's Almanac shows that over the past 74 years, the S&P 500 has only achieved a 35% cumulative return from May to October, compared to an 11,657% gain during the other half of the year. Investors are navigating through a series of earnings reports and market data this week, with the U.S. employment report due on Friday. Despite some indicators suggesting a buying opportunity, such as a drop in investor sentiment and the S&P 500 closing above 5,500, marking a 50% retracement of its peak-to-trough decline, the seasonal pattern advises caution. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, which tracks the S&P 500, has fallen 5.4% this year through Tuesday, aligning with the historical trend of weaker performance in the May-October period.
The "sell America" trade is gaining momentum as investors look overseas amid growing uncertainty in U.S. markets. Here's a breakdown of why staying away too long could be a costly mistake: https://t.co/4WqiuyeEix
« Sell in May and go away » ? Le vieil adage boursier a été de mauvais conseil sur les dix dernières années en Europe https://t.co/TKKxzApGL2
'Large number of foreign investors' skittish about investing in America, longtime investor Rebecca Patterson warns https://t.co/gtBxNkX35N (via @anna_gle)