Goldman Sachs economists have analyzed the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs on the U.S. economy through June 2025, finding that U.S. companies have absorbed the majority of the tariff costs so far, accounting for 64%. Foreign exporters have absorbed 14% of the tariffs, while U.S. consumers have borne 22% of the costs. However, Goldman Sachs projects that if the recent tariffs follow the pattern of earlier levies, the share of tariff costs passed on to consumers could rise to 67% by the end of the year. This shift is expected as companies increase prices to offset their losses, leading to further price hikes for consumers. Tariffs have contributed 0.2% to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation through June, with Goldman estimating this impact could reach 0.66% by year-end. Core inflation is forecasted to rise to 3.2%. Small U.S. businesses, which represent a significant portion of job creation and import activity, are struggling with the financial strain caused by higher import costs and compliance with the tariffs. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce notes that about 236,000 small-business importers, purchasing over $868 billion in goods from abroad in 2023, now face an estimated combined annual tariff cost of $202 million. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian governments have welcomed the lower-than-expected U.S. tariffs as a diplomatic success, though the poorest populations in the region remain vulnerable to the trade conflict's effects. Goldman Sachs also forecasts a mass consumption boom and has recommended five stocks for investors to consider amid these economic conditions.