Since early June 2025, the S&P 500 E-mini futures (#ES_F) have exhibited a notable rally driven primarily by technical setups known as Failed Breakdowns, which are bearish-looking price dips that quickly reverse, triggering long positions. Starting from a low near 5970 on June 22, the futures surged approximately 380 points over several weeks, breaking out of a two-week bullish triangle pattern defined by support around 5979-5982 and resistance near 6081. Key support and resistance levels were closely monitored, including magnets at 6029, 6050, 6227-33, 6281, and 6305, with targets frequently hit with high precision. Throughout this period, traders emphasized holding runners—partial positions left open to capture further gains—while protecting profits amid low volatility and headline-driven market moves. Volatility spikes were mostly linked to geopolitical events and tariff headlines, which temporarily disrupted the otherwise orderly technical progression. After the breakout, the market entered a phase of low volatility and range-bound trading, with the 6250-6300 range acting as a consolidation zone. The rally extended into late July and early August, with the futures approaching all-time highs near 6330-6340 and targets extending up to 6400 and beyond. Market participants continued to rely on technical levels such as 6281, 6298, 6311, 6324, and 6333 as support and resistance, with the 6400 strike emerging as a significant gamma resistance level. Despite occasional bearish imbalances and profit-taking, the overall trend remained bullish, supported by repeated successful reclaiming of key supports and breakout targets. The strategy of trading only on Failed Breakdowns and waiting for clear long triggers proved effective throughout this rally, with traders advised to avoid overtrading during low volatility periods and to watch for headline-driven volatility spikes. The market outlook suggested potential further upside if key resistance levels were broken, with measured move targets reaching as high as 6325 and beyond, while failure of supports could lead to dips toward lower levels such as 5975, 5942, and 5850.
$ES_F Overnight: Buyers active on 1st test of the 6340.25-6349.25 Support (Bias Confirming Zone)
Trade Plan & Watchlist for Friday 📝 $SPX faded the entire gap today and closed lower near yesterday's lows. This 6336 pivot is important to defend to keep upside alive in the near term. It is the end of the month and the beginning of a new one tomorrow. This often creates some
#ES_F Bearish bias (Liquidation) #daytrading https://t.co/0gYuQqMP7q https://t.co/MCWbFqoc7j