Fitch Ratings reports that the US effective tariff rate has settled at 17% following the July 31st duties.
Fitch Ratings: The US effective tariff rate settles at 17% with the July 31st duties.
share of americans who would prefer tariffs on foreign goods to be decreased: 41% (too bad) increased: 18% kept the same: 23% -yougov
U.S. trade barriers have surged to levels unseen in nearly nine decades, with multiple analyses converging on an average tariff rate in the mid- to high-teens. Fitch Ratings says the effective rate stands near 17% following duties imposed on July 31, while RBC BlueBay pegs the figure closer to 18%. Bloomberg Economics projects the average will reach 15.2% once another round of levies is implemented on Aug. 7. All of the estimates mark a dramatic climb from roughly 2.3% in 2024. The higher duties are expected to deliver a substantial revenue windfall. RBC BlueBay forecasts tariff collections of about $450 billion a yearโup from $77 billion in 2024โand suggests the extra income could narrow the federal deficit to just under 7% of GDP. Separately, Yale-affiliated economist Ernie Tedeschi calculates that the current regime could raise $2.2 trillion between 2026 and 2035 after accounting for economic feedback effects. The expansion of the tariff wall stems from fresh levies scheduled to take effect next week and from recently concluded agreements that set 15% automobile tariffs on imports from the European Union, Japan and South Korea. With average rates now the highest since the early 1930s, economists warn that the escalating protectionism could dent global growth even as it bolsters U.S. fiscal receipts.