"The dollar is about 10% weaker than interest rate differentials would have suggested." - Apollo Sløk https://t.co/q36WJXVaiZ
The dollar is 10% weaker relative to the euro than interest rate differentials would suggest; this delta emerged since the start of the Trade War. https://t.co/2RxvfUCKfs https://t.co/NaMKoSG37b
This is the most important chart in markets currently. Real long-term rates in the US have decoupled from the Euro zone. If this is a risk premium - markets think it is - it justifies a weaker Dollar. But if it's stronger growth expectations, the Dollar is way too low currently. https://t.co/OAzn3XoPnf
The US dollar has depreciated by approximately 10% against the euro relative to what interest rate differentials would predict. This divergence has emerged since the onset of the US-China trade war and reflects a decoupling of real long-term interest rates between the US and the Eurozone. Market analysts suggest that this gap may represent a risk premium, which would justify a weaker dollar. However, if the difference were driven by stronger US growth expectations, the dollar's current weakness would be inconsistent with that scenario. Additional factors contributing to the dollar's decline include the expanding US fiscal deficit, diminished external confidence in the dollar, and avoidance of the currency due to sanctions. Should the dollar lose its status as the global reserve currency, financial market volatility could increase substantially.