‼️The US Dollar weakness has been remarkable: The Euro has gained 8% year-to-date against the Greenback, the most in 22 YEARS. Tariff uncertainty and European fiscal plans prompted investors to pull money out of the US Dollar at a historic pace. Will this trend continue? https://t.co/ao9ZgGSdIA
The fall in the Dollar is unnerving, especially as it should have risen in response to tariffs. Positioning data say Dollar shorts are now arguably the biggest since 2012. No matter what you think of the US, that limits further downside. Today's substack: https://t.co/3PeGrfwQtQ https://t.co/Rp6FvbWBZm
Speculative positioning in global FX markets is now very short the US Dollar. What's notable is that past episodes of stretched Dollar short positioning were heavily skewed towards Euro longs (blue). Not the case now. Markets understand there's not much to cheer about in the EU. https://t.co/G5aWkYTDXP
The US Dollar has experienced notable weakness in 2025, with the Euro gaining 8% year-to-date against the Greenback, marking the most significant appreciation in 22 years. This decline in the Dollar's value comes amid growing doubts about American economic exceptionalism and increased tariff uncertainty. Traditionally, in times of crisis, investors sought safety in US Treasuries and the Dollar, but this pattern appears to be shifting. Despite higher longer-term US real interest rates compared to the Eurozone, which typically signal strong growth and support a stronger Dollar, the currency remains undervalued and heavily shorted in global foreign exchange markets. Speculative positioning shows a pronounced short stance on the Dollar, distinct from previous episodes where Euro longs dominated. The current environment reflects a lack of confidence in both the US and European economies. Historical parallels to the 2011 US credit downgrade, when Treasury yields fell as investors sought safety, raise questions about alternative safe havens such as gold. The scale of Dollar short positions is reportedly the largest since 2012, which may limit further downside. Investors are closely monitoring whether this trend of Dollar weakness will persist amid ongoing fiscal and trade uncertainties.