Thai Court Rulings on Shinawatras Threaten Government’s Grip on Power

Thailand’s influential Shinawatra family faces three separate court decisions over the next three weeks that could destabilise the Pheu Thai-led government and force an early election. On Friday, 22 August, a criminal court will decide whether former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra committed lèse-majesté during a 2015 media interview, a charge that carries up to 15 years in prison for each count. Eighteen days later, the Supreme Court is scheduled to rule on whether Thaksin’s 2023 detention in a private hospital wing satisfied part of his corruption sentence. Meanwhile, the Constitutional Court will hand down a verdict on 29 August in an ethics case against Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who has been suspended as prime minister over a leaked June phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen. Unfavourable rulings for either the 39-year-old premier or her 76-year-old father could unravel the coalition, which clings to power with a slender parliamentary majority and, according to analysts, may prompt the dissolution of parliament well before the next vote is legally required in 2027. The legal uncertainty arrives as Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy grapples with weak growth, record household debt and a tourism recovery that is losing momentum. Policy continuity is already a concern for investors after a succession of leadership changes; additional political upheaval could further weigh on confidence and delay fiscal measures aimed at reviving growth.