The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation said Friday it will keep the Colorado River in a Tier 1 shortage through 2026, extending mandatory cutbacks for a fifth straight year amid an enduring drought. The decision, based on the agency’s August reservoir projections, means Arizona will forgo about 18 percent of its annual river allocation, Nevada 7 percent, and Mexico 5 percent. California, which holds senior water rights, will again avoid reductions. Lake Mead is now expected to stand at roughly 1,055.9 feet above sea level on 1 January 2026—about 20 feet below the shortage trigger and on course to drop to a record low in 2027—while Lake Powell is forecast at 3,538 feet, only 48 feet above the level that would halt hydropower generation at Glen Canyon Dam. Together the two reservoirs supply drinking water and electricity to about 40 million people and irrigate farms across seven U.S. states and two Mexican states. The announcement intensifies pressure on the basin states to agree on a new framework before current operating guidelines expire at the end of 2026. The Trump administration has given the states until mid-November to submit a preliminary pact—or face federal intervention—and a final plan is due by February 2026. Negotiators remain divided over how to apportion future shortages as climate change further erodes the river’s flow.