The Cook Political Report has revised its outlook for the 2026 U.S. House elections after Texas enacted a new congressional map, shifting five seats toward Republicans. Under the updated ratings, Republicans are now favored in 215 districts, Democrats in 202, with 18 races considered toss-ups. The changes stem largely from Texas, where previously safe or lean-Democratic seats—such as TX-09, TX-32 and TX-35—have moved into the solid or likely Republican columns. Two other Texas districts, TX-28 and TX-34, have become more competitive, further bolstering the GOP’s prospects one year before the mid-term vote. The Cook projection contrasts with a separate model published on Aug. 17 by Polling USA, which—using national polling and district-level data—still forecasts Democrats winning 233 seats to Republicans’ 202. The diverging forecasts highlight how redistricting changes can alter the battlefield even as national political trends remain fluid.