
U.S. Dollar Strengthens 5% Post-Election Amid Tariff Concerns for Emerging Markets; Renminbi at Risk
Following the recent U.S. election, analysts predict significant changes for the U.S. dollar and emerging markets. A column in the Financial Times suggests that the election results could initiate a substantial rally for the dollar, driven by expectations of fiscal easing and potential tariffs on China. This shift is anticipated to negatively impact emerging markets, particularly the renminbi, which could decline sharply. Analysts note that the dollar's strength is already becoming apparent, with the 2y2y forward rate differential between the U.S. and G10 countries rising sharply, surpassing levels seen after the 2016 election. Additionally, the euro is projected to fall below parity with the dollar, reflecting the U.S.'s stronger fiscal position compared to the EU. The DXY index, which measures the dollar's value against a basket of currencies, has risen by 5% since the Federal Open Market Committee's 50 basis point rate cut in September, further indicating a trend towards dollar strength.
Sources
- Menthor Q
1/ Since the election, we’ve seen a notably strong dollar, driven by several factors. Domestic economic strength plays a key role, and the market is also assessing potential outcomes of tariff policies. Following the 50bps rate cut in the September FOMC, the DXY has risen by 5… https://t.co/woJplOl8TQ
- Satoshi Flipper
DXY index has been going up after Trump's win because his policies encourage a strong dollar 💪💪 https://t.co/casYfzoytK
- Robin Brooks
Euro is going below parity and that is NOT a bad thing. The US - Euro 10y10y forward rate differential (pink) is up to a new high in the wake of last week's election. The US has more fiscal space than the EU. It wants the EU to step up on Ukraine. The EU isn't ready for this... https://t.co/R8iicVKKuw
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