Aug 18, 03:15 AM

IMF Projects Philippines 5.5% Growth in 2025; China Autonomous Regions’ GDP Rises and Thailand’s Q2 GDP Hits 2.8% Amid ASEAN Slowdown

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects varied GDP growth rates for 2025 across Asia-Pacific countries, with the Philippines leading at 5.5%, followed by Vietnam at 5.2%, Indonesia at 4.7%, and Malaysia at 4.1%. China and Cambodia are both expected to grow by 4%, while Brunei and Singapore are forecasted at 2.5% and 2%, respectively. Myanmar and Thailand have lower projections of 1.9% and 1.8%, with Australia, South Korea, and Japan trailing at 1.6%, 1%, and 0.6%. The IMF data also highlights shifts in the global GDP share (PPP) from 1990 and 2000 to 2025. Notably, the combined share of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the UK decreased from 37% in 1990 to 16% in 2025, while the United States maintained a 26% share. Japan's share declined from 8.8% to 3.2%, whereas India's share increased from 3.4% to 8.5%. The United Kingdom's share fell from 4% in 1988 to 2.1% in 2025, while Indonesia's rose from 1.7% in 2000 to 2.5%. In China, the combined GDP of five autonomous regions grew from 6.01 trillion yuan (approximately $843 billion) in 2020 to nearly 8.38 trillion yuan in 2024, with average annual growth rates of 5.6%. Xizang and Xinjiang recorded higher average annual growth rates of 6.1% and 6.0%, respectively. Thailand's economy expanded by 2.8% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, driven by export gains ahead of higher U.S. tariffs, which helped offset a slowdown in tourism. However, the job market in Thailand showed stagnation, with unemployment rising slightly to 0.91% in Q2 from 0.89% in Q1, and employment growth slowing to 0.02%. Analysts note that the ASEAN region's Q2 GDP growth was largely due to front-loading exports before the U.S. tariffs took effect, and the region is expected to face a slowdown in the second half of 2025.

Written with ChatGPT (GPT-4).

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