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Prediction markets for PL

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

56.03%chance

18361288802

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4899

3841

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.5%chance

455372687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3723

1531

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.25%chance

183266085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17639

7122

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.71%chance

85130764

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2919

859

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.32%chance

7312215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1435

697

Will Khamzat Chimaev defeat Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 319?

May 26, 6:17 PMAug 18, 6:16 PM

52.65%chance

179121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10545

9483

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

54.99%chance

211304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11052

9048

Will I be impressed by someone using RL through self-play to improve model creativity or aesthetics in 2025?

Jan 27, 12:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.5%chance

6731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10255

9775

¿# de curules ganados por el PL en las elecciones de Honduras 2025? # of seats won by the LP in Honduras 2025 elections?

Nov 30, 11:37 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5265

OptionProbability

31-40 curules/seats

21-30 curules/seats

41-50 curules/seats

51-60 curules/seats

0-20 curules/seats

61-70 curules/seats

71+ curules/seats

39

24

23

6

5

5

5

Will Wrocław [PL] public transit implement AI-based flex routing or DRT by the end of 2035?

Sep 5, 6:50 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.16%chance

316

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

99

Will Manchester City have the most Premier League titles (currently at 8 based on PL only) in 2101?

Sep 7, 7:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Who will be the 2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year?

May 13, 2:46 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Ja'Marr Chase

Saquon Barkley

Jahmyr Gibbs

Derrick Henry

Other

20

20

20

20

20

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